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If you have been following this space, here is a conclusion that's not going to surprise you: Online advertising will grow, but it will do so more slowly over the next few years.
That's the headline on a handy chart sent over by eMarketer this morning. EMarketer is a quantitative accumulation of the conventional wisdom, pulling together forecasts from various research firms.
Next year online ad spending will increase by 29 percent, it predicts. By 2011, the company predicts, $42 billion will be spent in advertising online. That will only be a 12 percent increase from 2010.
It does predict advertising on web video and mobile telephones to triple in the same time scale, with social networks getting only 6% of the advertisng cake.
Online Advertising Spend: Predictions [bits.blogs.nytimes.com]
projecting growth of 47 percent this year to $8.5 billion and 44 percent to $12.5 billion in 2008.
Video is getting people excited. I don't know, we'll see. (I know that no one wants to watch me on video, so this annoys me.)
[edited by: eljefe3 at 1:57 am (utc) on Dec. 14, 2007]
It's looking even better in the UK along with Denmark, Norway and Sweden.
I can't see the downside to this, even for us smaller publishers. I'm glad about the social networking prediction, I can't make that market work for me. Possibly the money is coming mainly from the older 40+ market.
Mobiles is the up and coming market and that makes me happy. My decrepit mobile needs replacing and now I have a good reason to buy a brand new, up to the minute version and charge it to my business with a clear conscience!