Online Advertising Spend: Predictions

[engine]

If you have been following this space, here is a conclusion that's not going to surprise you: Online advertising will grow, but it will do so more slowly over the next few years.

That's the headline on a handy chart sent over by eMarketer this morning. EMarketer is a quantitative accumulation of the conventional wisdom, pulling together forecasts from various research firms.

Next year online ad spending will increase by 29 percent, it predicts. By 2011, the company predicts, $42 billion will be spent in advertising online. That will only be a 12 percent increase from 2010.

It does predict advertising on web video and mobile telephones to triple in the same time scale, with social networks getting only 6% of the advertisng cake.

Interesting predictions!

Online Advertising Spend: Predictions [bits.blogs.nytimes.com]

[davewray]

Very interesting indeed. It really doesn't surprise me that web video and cell phone advertising is expected to triple. And, that's based on the fact that not many use that medium as of yet, so the upward growth potential is greater. Having said that, those forecast increases in overall online ad spend are still pretty impressive. When exactly will online ad spending overtake print ad spend? (Or, has that happened already?)

[weeks]

Local spending on the web is predicted to be making a big jump soon. Borrell is telling newspaper publishers he is...

projecting growth of 47 percent this year to $8.5 billion and 44 percent to $12.5 billion in 2008.

Video is getting people excited. I don't know, we'll see. (I know that no one wants to watch me on video, so this annoys me.)

[edited by: eljefe3 at 1:57 am (utc) on Dec. 14, 2007]

[nomis5]

And here is a UK perspective on it from the Times:

[business.timesonline.co.uk...]

It's looking even better in the UK along with Denmark, Norway and Sweden.

I can't see the downside to this, even for us smaller publishers. I'm glad about the social networking prediction, I can't make that market work for me. Possibly the money is coming mainly from the older 40+ market.

Mobiles is the up and coming market and that makes me happy. My decrepit mobile needs replacing and now I have a good reason to buy a brand new, up to the minute version and charge it to my business with a clear conscience!