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February 2010 collapse

Same traffic, same advertizers... CTR collapse

     
9:17 am on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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I would really like to know if anybody else has experienced collapse in CTR+ECPM+CPC-wise starting in February (Jan 31 was totally normal day).

Facts:
- Same traffic
- Same advertizers with the same budgets (small niche, everybody knows everybody)
- Everything was rock solid the last year
- Last minutes of January looks normal

... then... February starts and CTR drops 20%, eCPM 25% in one second and has stayed at the new level every since.

Is this something only I am experiencing, or...?

I just cannot figure this one out... If it is penalty (and the level of the jump would support this), why has my CTR jumped down?

Only explanation I can think is that: I have hit some penalty word, which has ""disabled"" some of the ads. But without knowing the exact problem, it's kind of difficult to "undo".
9:44 am on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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For me the last 2 weeks of January was pretty unacceptable with overall revenue drop of 20%, but now, in the month of Feb. ecpm have started picking up although CTR and traffic remains the same..

Fluctuations have been an part of adsense for a very long time.
11:24 am on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Yesteday was the my lowest daily earnings in four years. About 25% of my best day in september of 2007.
12:54 pm on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Marcito: Good to know others are having some problems too.

Sid786: Fluctuations are more random, this is like a penalty: a sudden sharp consistent change. After enough years and enough data most fluctuations/changes are logical and can be learned/identified (seasonal, freshness/site-structure-change -effect, penalties, bidding, algo updates, trust, flush of new ads, etc). And having enough traffic+clicks means the daily averages vary very little normally.
1:31 pm on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Been waiting for this post ever since my are stats delayed post a few days ago.

We dropped 35% on our largest site on the 31st and havent recovered yet. This week has been horrible and ad targeting has been really wonky as well. Something changed on the 31st of January for some of us.
3:02 pm on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Lowest CTR ever yesterday and today is looking the same. Wonder if the snow storm I read about is affecting clickers in the US.
3:26 pm on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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After 5(6?) years on AdSense, I've come to the following unassailable, concrete conclusion late last year.

I'll call it The Only Law of AdSenseTM:

At any given time, space and condition, there are two types of publishers. Those having a good day, and those who aren't. To understand which is who is beyond human comprehension, and is ultimately determined by factors too complicated to, well, determined by publishers who are humans.

It has made me stop worrying and love the Bomb(s). :D
4:03 pm on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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very frustrating month
5:44 pm on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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same thing here. CTR way down.
5:46 pm on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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ps. it's more like a freefall than a collapse lol.
6:10 pm on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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ECPM+CPC both down. Traffic up.
6:56 pm on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Down by half and continuing to slide.

Can't remember when we had a day as bad as yesterday.
7:05 pm on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Same here, maybe part everflux and part less advertisers this time of year (niche specific especially).
Like the earlier posts, so many factors its dizzying, and personalized search may be affecting some sites more than others.
7:45 pm on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Horrible day yesterday, today looking even worse.
8:17 pm on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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I've been with adsense for 5 or six years and today is the lowest my ctr and cpm have ever been. It has been low since the 1st but today is so weirdly low that I'm posting about it.
8:21 pm on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Mine is awful today too. About half what we normally do on any given day. Perhaps they are tweaking the algorithm for matching ads up?
8:56 pm on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Google AS is approaching its EOL on my sites, that's how I feel.
9:14 pm on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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This is diabolical. Try 10% less on the CTR, and maybe 30% of the earnings for the month so far. I am so tired of this.
11:29 pm on Feb 6, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Abysmal numbers! OK but let's not under estimate the impact of the Superbowl weekend here in the US.
12:41 am on Feb 7, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Mine bounced back somewhat by 5pm here in the US. May have just been delayed stats.

Why oh why do I even look? ;-)
1:15 am on Feb 7, 2010 (gmt 0)

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"Google AS is approaching its EOL on my sites, that's how I feel."

Problem is there are few alternatives that pay as well, at least for me. But, considering 6 years with AS and tens of thousands of $ later, I can't complain. My revenue is up, boosted by increasing traffic. None the less if I do as well this year as in 2009 I'll be a happy camper.
1:27 am on Feb 7, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Ok that was unnerving, ctr was down by 65% this morning but is now back to normal, cpm a little low but normal. Usually when my stats are slow the impressions are low too but this was something else.
2:40 am on Feb 7, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Looks like Adsense took a click dump. Better, now back to just a regular bad day. whew.
1:38 pm on Feb 7, 2010 (gmt 0)

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For me December was the lowest month since starting 6 years ago. January came back by about 20% and so far feb may go up another 15-20% from Jan. I'm doing slow but sure social/biz media marketing and visitors appear to be increasing little by little over time.

The major change over this time is that CTR has come back 30-40% and Ecpm has dropped maybe 15-20%.

Perhaps the social/biz media visitors have fresh eyes for ads on my page and are clicking more.
5:05 pm on Feb 7, 2010 (gmt 0)

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January 2010 was the best January ever (not my highest month ever) but February doesn't look good. Very low on clicks, not normal compared to my other feb of other years
5:21 pm on Feb 7, 2010 (gmt 0)

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please tell me the stats are stuck/lagging for today
5:30 pm on Feb 7, 2010 (gmt 0)

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This Sunday looking normal so far. The 6-day horror show ended (*knocking on the wood*) just as razor sharply as it started. CTR, eCPM, CPC, etc all jumped back to the normal.

I just wish I knew if Google fixed/changed something this Saturday, or did I manage to counter the problem (I have been checking, re-checking and fine-tuning all "possible-penalty-causing" things I may have done in January). Or maybe this was just some adsense-algo test that I was part of ("lucky" me).
7:36 pm on Feb 7, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Holding steady here from last month which is slightly better than last year, which was abyssmal compared to years before. Every quarter/month/week G picks a slightly varied group to laugh at and mock during their free luncheons.
8:21 pm on Feb 7, 2010 (gmt 0)

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February has been absolutely phenomenal so far! Sorry to poop your party ;)
8:25 pm on Feb 7, 2010 (gmt 0)

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It's worth noting that the two biggest population centers in the US -- the East and West Coasts -- are being hammered by weather. In the Washington, DC, area, we have nearly three feet of snow in much of the region. Traffic isn't snarled because there isn't any. Nobody can get out and everything is closed.

On the West Coast, torrential rain is causing power failures, traffic woes, etc. And then there's the Super Bowl, which is sucking up most of the eyeballs everywhere else.

Many advertisers are quick to snuff budgets when shoppers aren't out shopping. Wouldn't be surprising if that was happening the last few days.
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