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AdSense EPC Going Into Freefall!

Since June 8th 2007

     
5:56 pm on Jun 12, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I am beginning to wonder whether this has anything to do with the MFA/ARB clampdown?

Since June 8th my EPC has dropped 14.39%, my eCPM by 12.21% and comparing Monday 4th v Monday 11th my earnings were down 24.63% with the same number of clicks.

This is a bit too co-incidental for my way of thinking.

No my trade is not on holiday this is a 12 month of the year business generally with few fluctuations.

Yes there seem to be plenty of quality advertisers however I am now seeing a lot of "directory type" sites in AdLinks and they were never there before and checking through the SERPs advertising they are cropping up in the first few pages.

Certainly something significant is happening so far as my sites are concerned and if I have a few more days of this then I shall remove my AdLinks to see if that stops the rot.

Is anyone else seeing similar.

1:57 am on June 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I'm with Ronin and Potential geek. Absolutely suberb earnings at a consistent level I thought I would never see again - it's across all channels. Is it the ebay war with Google, the dropping of arbitrage sites, the buffy update bringing better (or worse?) targeted traffic? Hell, maybe Google reset my smart pricing.

I have no idea but definitely went up in 2 two steps this month to eCPMs harking back to 2-3 years ago. Sadly, I have no idea why or how long it will last or how to keep it at that level, but it stands out.

2:52 am on June 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I'd love to DMCA these guys but I guess the 'fair use' theory prevents me from being able to do it.

Don't sell yourself short. There's a lot of misinformation out there about "fair use" by people who have never read what the copyright office has to say about it but want the term to be in their favor when they go around stealing content.

FarmBoy

4:52 am on June 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I've seen greater high/low swings this month than I have during any other month since I joined Adsense. The lows are as low as I've ever seen and the highs, while nowhere near all-time highs, are reminiscent of early 2006 levels, which were pretty sweet. It's been a slightly tense month, wondering what will happen next, but by now even these blatant mood swings have developed a sort of consistency. Predictable chaos.

Something interesting I've noted and that I can add to the long list of AS anomalies I'll never have enough information to understand... Historically speaking, I've always had a strong eCPM on weekends, much stronger than I see during the week. Ditto for holidays. I've charted an average 20% increase in eCPM on those days as opposed to weekdays. The reduction in traffic I see during weekends, advertisers turning their campaigns on and off, etc.. all of this contributes to eCPM movement, yet I'm convinced something else has been at work here too. Some of the weekend spikes I used to see were that significant. In the past, my weekend earnings have remained consistent with my weekday earnings, in spite of much less traffic. This month I've seen a reversal of that long-time trend and now weekend eCPM is falling to less than weekday eCPM. I'm sure it means squat but since I had nothing better to contribute to this thread I thought I'd throw it out there.

With all the ups and downs this month has seen (the most volatile yet), I'm still on pace to match my recent monthly average earnings. The road I'm taking to get there is quite a bit different than the road I took last month, but the bottom line is going to be, looks like it's going to be, the same.

2:17 am on June 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Today is going to be the best day of the month, so far. I've had really deep bottoms and not much in term of drama in any metric, though I think it's because my niche is so traditionally slow-reacting and near the low end (hey, somebody's got to inhabit the basement). Believe me, if I see significant gains, there are going to be a lot of REALLY happy webmasters out there.

I've been really patient, reserving judgement on Google with their attempt at a purge of Arb/MFA. I'm hoping the ship is entering the port here. I figure my earnings ought to be double what they've averaged over the past 2 years if the bad element is eliminated from AS/AW. We'll see.

9:52 am on June 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Update a couple of weeks after the initial fall and my average EPC has recovered however not to previous levels:-(

8-21 June compared to:

1-7 June: -15.18%
All 2007: - 7.63%

Interestingly my CTR is also down 6.36% compared to all year metrics.

What is more disturbing is that compared to the same period 2006:

eCPM -32.3%
CTR -24.29%

Visitor numbers up, page impressions up.

How long before I start paying Google?

Has the AdSense novelty factor for Joe Surfer worn off after 4 years?

Our B&M businesses are doing fine, in fact, extremely well and we are seeing a record number of enquiries and large contract order placements.

I'm going to throw in this question:

My widgets do not lend themselves to courier/parcel delivery services simply because of their bulk and weight, I guess there are many products like this, is it possible that Joe Surfer is now beginning to realise that the Internet cannot economically and efficiently supply such widgets unless bought in commercial bulk quantities and possibly, for my widgets, many only research the products and now not bother clicking since they know, or have been told, it's not practical?

Therefore when they see a Google Ad for a possible supplier 500-1,000 miles away they just don't bother?

It's only an educated guess but maybe plausible?

11:06 am on June 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I think you're correct about the postage. For bulky items I get them from a store without thinking about buying through the internet. Just being in when the postman arrives is pain enough never mind being charged the earth for delivery.
4:44 pm on June 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Updating my previous message, the 21st was the highest-earnings day of June for me. However, today, the 22nd, I'm showing Page eCPM at the lowest level I've ever seen, ever in my 2+ years with AS. Abysmal, and ridiculous, less than one would get with a really terrible CPM campaign. Unbelievable...

Either Google has some serious reporting issues going on, or they're keeping most of the money for themselves.

I usually get between .06 and .14 per click, today, it's less than .02.

When, when, when are they going to come clean and fix this nonsense? The up-down cycle is like living with an abusive spouse. It ain't pretty.

5:19 pm on June 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I think there are some serious changes going on at Google.

-CPC way up for some, way down for others
-Very bad targetting (for the first time in
3 years for me)
-Very slow website and site diagnostics not working
-The recent arbitrage measures

What's next?

6:16 pm on June 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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HuskyPup... you have StickyMail

Chapman-

6:37 am on June 26, 2007 (gmt 0)

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A little update: CPC is still way down, but getting a little better. Compared to the same period last year, my earnings are 25% down and eCPM is 50% down.
This 66 message thread spans 7 pages: 66
 

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