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It is based on eCPM but earnings hits a double-whammy because traffic tends to be down too.
June eCPM is stronger than yearly average, then the first days of July sees a step down in eCPM which plummets on July 4. There is a slow recovery on following days for a about a week. Then in mid, July eCPM really takes a hit for the rest of the month. In early August, there is a slow climb back up.
What experiences do other people have in this time frame?
The 4th of July was much lower but hey the 5th and onwards made all the difference....
You just have to think what people are doing on the day. Are they on the internet or are they out playing. Also I think that advertisers hold back till after the holidays.
Same happens at Christmas. My sites are general home/garden information.