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If you are aiming to be a member of the coveted UPS Club, it will be the people in brown you want to see delivering your AdSense check, and not the FedEx van ;)
Not true. I couldn't find that in the TOS. :)
>> How about a club for anyone who wants to be in the UPS Club?
Count me in :)
[edited by: Macro at 6:42 pm (utc) on Nov. 4, 2004]
It is a bit like the sound barrier, it takes some pushing through, every time you get near your CPC goes down, so you have to build some more and so on.
So the comments about staying in the UPS club and sitting back is not the case, you have to keep building, building and then some to keep up with the longterm downward trend.
Oh btw I am not a member (yet)
You mean G starts paying a smaller percentage of the bid per click as your total income goes up or are you just joking or talking about time decay of the bids amounts?
We just recently started, and noticed some very good CPC's early on (actually I'm referring to G's CPM calculations here) and racked up some pretty good earnings, then, as you're implying they seemed to consistently decline, even for the same page from one day to next.
(BTW, I am NOT a member... but I'd like to know how hard it is to be one)
Last G's 10-q (search for 'goog 10-q')says that G charges advertisers for clicks from content network about 384,285k$ per 3 month, so divide it by 3 and multiply by 0.7 (70% goes to publishers) we get 89666.5k$ paid to publishers per month. Also we have 22k paid publishers from quite reliable source (cheque numbers).
Now all we need to figure out how many UPS club members having total payout, and number of publishers. Impossible? How about that. Use Pareto's priciple (search G for 'pareto 80 20') in our case we assume that 20% of publishers earn 80% of money. So now we have 4400 publishers make about 20k each.... considering that out of those 4k publishers some make more than others with average being about 20k it seem like quite a good estimation for our target number of UPS Club members is 4000. Bingo!
It is all a pure speculation of course, but it about the best what can be done based on available data. (I have simplified it a bit but the number is still close to what more complicated calculations would give)
BTW. Amaising how Pareto almost hit directly into the target on the first iteration.
So now we have 4400 publishers make about 20k each.... considering that out of those 4k publishers some make more than others with average being about 20k it seem like quite a good estimation for our target number of UPS Club members is 4000. Bingo!
Hmm.. when we apply Pareto's Principle to the top publishers, we end up with way less UPS Club Members:
The 4400 top publishers make $89666000 alltogether.
20% of these top publishers (the 880 supertop publishers) make 80% of the money ($71732800).
Leaving only $8966600-$71732800=$17933200 for the remaining 80% of the top publishers (3520)
So the rest will earn $17933200/3520 = $5100 on average.
Based on these numbers, I would guess there are about 1000 UPS Club Members.
So the only remaining questions now are: how many members of each class are there and what the average cost of a membership? Following the Pareto’s principle we can probably argue that there are only 200 first class members, but I am at loss on estimating the average cost of membership. Can anybody help?
The only conclusion that I can come up with is that anybody may become a second class member in the club for the right amount of money.
And if you are not in the club, relax; you may still be making more Adsense money than those that are in (after they deduct the money spent on Adwords).