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IMF: The World Is "starting to pull out of recession"

 4:45 pm on Aug 18, 2009 (gmt 0)

IMF: The World Is "starting to pull out of recession" [news.bbc.co.uk]
The world has begun to recover from recession but the process will not be simple, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.

The recession had "left deep scars, which will affect both supply and demand for many years to come" said IMF chief economist, Olivier Blanchard.

His comments came after Japan this week followed France and Germany is seeing their economies return to growth.

In this latest report, Mr Blanchard predicted that global output may also remain lower than it had been before the crisis.

Countries must rebalance their economies to make it sustainable, Mr Blanchard said.



 4:36 pm on Aug 19, 2009 (gmt 0)

Heh. Since the U.S. media isn't reporting the above facts, then where'd you find out about it, Al Jazeera? ;)

If you are actually looking for the answer, I follow realtytrac (foreclosures), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (consumer confidence) for example and other government financial data reporting institutions.

Personal bankruptcy filings reached 1.25 million in the year ending June 30, up 34 percent from the year before, as Americans continued to grapple with debt, unemployment and devalued homes, according to figures released Thursday by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had retreated in June, declined further in July.

Moody's estimates that lenders will foreclose on 1.89 million homes in 2009, up from 1.43 million last year.

You could not rely on cheer leading organizations like MSNBC, CBSNews, NBCNews, CNN etc to actually report something not in line with the propaganda released by the Obama admin. You must get your facts from the source and interpret them yourself and draw your own conclusions.

Merely stating over and over that a house is not on fire does not magically change the fact that the building is burning.


 5:12 pm on Aug 19, 2009 (gmt 0)

>>>You could not rely on cheer leading organizations like...

Sorry FP, but that is propaganda fed to you by those who want you to see things through an ideological prism. How can you say the media is not reporting this? It's not a secret. It's on the front page of every newspaper.

Washington Post [washingtonpost.com]

Personal Bankruptcy Surges 34 Percent
Loss of Jobs, Home Equity Drives Filings

From CNNMoney [money.cnn.com]:

key index of consumer confidence fell more than expected in July as the dismal job market continued to darken the outlook for household spending.

The Conference Board, a New York-based business research group, said Tuesday its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 46.6 in July from a reading of 49.3 in June...

From NPR [npr.org]

Foreclosure Woes Spread To Areas Once Thought Safe
Moody's Economy.com estimates that lenders will foreclose on 1.89 million homes in 2009, up from 1.43 million last year.

Everyone knows real estate is in the crapper and will take awhile to recover. HOWEVER, things ARE picking up in certain areas. So while cheerleaders of the right would rather have our president fail and aren't ashamed to say so, I would again say to you, don't believe the propaganda that the media is cheerleading for the white house. You are being lied to.

LATIMES [latimes.com]
Southern California home sales and prices rise in July

A more reasonable assesment is that the news media in general is not comprehensive nor detailed enough. I pick up the Economist now and then to see what is going on not just in Europe but in the United States. ;)


 6:57 pm on Aug 19, 2009 (gmt 0)

I don't think anyone can honestly and objectively say that the US media is not pro-Obama and it skew its reporting on the state of the economy among other issues to help from a PR standpoint.

There are too many examples to buttress that to include MSM members actually joining the Obama administration.

Warren Bass: Washington Post deputy editor

Daren Briscoe: Newsweek Washington correspondent

Jay Carney: Time magazine Washington bureau chief

Linda Douglass: ABC News Washington correspondent (previously with CBS News)

Kate Albright-Hanna: CNN producer

Peter Gosselin: Los Angeles Times Washington correspondent

Sasha Johnson: CNN senior political producer

Beverley Lumpkin: Justice Department correspondent for ABC News

Aneesh Raman: CNN Middle East correspondent

Vijay Ravindran: Chief Digital Officer and Senior Vice President of the Washington Post Company.

Rick Weiss: Washington Post science reporter

Jill Zuckman: Chicago Tribune Washington correspondent

My main point is that journalism died in 2008 and one must actually seek out the sources for an unbiased look at the facts.


 7:12 pm on Aug 19, 2009 (gmt 0)

given that president Obama inherited the screw ups of his predecessor ..how is any reporting now PR for him ..

before the end of 2008 there was keeping quiet about the real state of the economy and corruption ..whilst pocketing the money ..and hoping either to scarah people into letting them keep on doing it ..or hoping the other side if they got in ..would take the rap ..

or are you really trying to make out this mess is Obamas fault ~:o


 7:50 pm on Aug 19, 2009 (gmt 0)

...to include MSM members actually joining the Obama administration.

FP, how old are you? Members of the media have been joining government since at least the President Eisenhower administration [en.wikipedia.org] and probably further back than that. Your list of people from the press who are joining government is meaningless. It means nothing unique to this administration. Members of the press have been accepting government service for decades regardless of whether it's a Republican or Democrat in the white house. This is nothing new nor meaningful.

This is what I mean when I say you are being lied to
Members of the press working for government is a phenomenom that is commonplace, absolutely commmonplace, for both Republicans and Democrats and has been ongoing for decades.

The lie you believed is that this is something unique to the Obama administration. It is not.

The lie is that this proves the press is left leaning. It does not. The lie ignores that right leaning reporters have worked for Republican administrations. By this lunatic logic you can say the press was right leaning. But it isn't that either.

FP, you have been lied to. Do you see how they took a fact (that reporters were joining an adminstration) then SPUN it to mean all media is biased when in fact members of the media join both Democratic AND Republican administrations?

You are being fed propaganda.


 8:33 pm on Aug 19, 2009 (gmt 0)

My main point is that journalism died in 2008

Sorry to break it to you, man, but in the sense you're talking about, it's been mostly dead for quite some time.

The corporate media does not have a liberal bias or a conservative bias. It has a corporate bias. Has for a long time now. Not because of some shadowy conspiracy, but because the media corporations are... well... corporations. It's like a fish having a bias toward aquatic life.

Woz nailed it. Capitalism is on a collision course with Thermodynamics.

"And in this house, young lady, we obey the laws of Thermodynamics!" -- Homer Simpson


 8:41 pm on Aug 19, 2009 (gmt 0)

Ask anyone outside the US if they think american corporate media is left-leaning and they will giggle. This whole talking point has been fabricated by far right talk radio pundits because reality doesn't corresponds to their fringe ideology.


 8:57 pm on Aug 19, 2009 (gmt 0)

Whether the MSM is left leaning, right leaning, or levitating is not the subject of this thread.

We are all biased, and align ourselves with entities that tend to share our bias-whether that be presidents or news organizations.

Playing blame-game whack-a-mole is counter productive.

Now, as to whether or not the world is beginning to pull out of the recession:
(Add to either list according to your bias ;-)

Yes, it is!
The French and German economies both grew by 0.3% between April and June, bringing to an end recessions in Europe's largest economies that have lasted a year.

No, it isn't!
There was a risk that recoveries in individual nations were being fueled by government stimulus packages, Professor Blanchflower said, and that "when these disperse we will see a return to recession".

Both from original linked article.


 9:16 pm on Aug 19, 2009 (gmt 0)

Good point Acmac.

I think the most important point in the article was this:

Countries must rebalance their economies to make it sustainable, Mr Blanchard said.

That's asking a lot. Sustainable in the long term means not only having sound fiscal policy, but having sound physical policy.

I'm not optimistic about that. So my prediction, for what it's worth, is for a shallow recovery followed by a series of severe shocks.


 9:42 pm on Aug 19, 2009 (gmt 0)

I would say that the world has pulled back from the brink of a major depression.
There are some green shoots.
But we have a l o n g way to go before we have a recovery.
They all say that jobs are the last thing to recover. But it is jobs that we all need to pay our bills and buy things.
There are still many major redundancies and job losses all around the world.
So I say until we see unemployment figures going down there is no real recovery. And yes there does need to be some major rebalancing. But nobody is doing anything to start this.


 9:49 pm on Aug 19, 2009 (gmt 0)

I'm not optimistic about that. So my prediction, for what it's worth, is for a shallow recovery followed by a series of severe shocks.

= "Dead cat bounce"


 1:05 am on Aug 20, 2009 (gmt 0)

There is a lot of fear in America and I blame Fox News for their deranged perception of reality.


You can't blame Fox news for Oakland being the homicide capital of the US.

You can't blame Fox news for the local KFC, Chevy's and even the BofA being robbed in my sleepy little squeaky clean city. The KFC was a block away, my family could've easily have stepped inside when it happened or been at the next door convenience store. The Chevy's was 4 blocks away, next door to my grocery store.

Sadly, I live in one of the nicest safest neighborhoods on the planet, the robbers are imported from local cities not so nice and safe.

You can't blame Fox news for the drive by shooting that killed a carload on I-80 at the same exit I used a few minutes earlier.

You can't blame Fox news for the 3 men bashing the windows out of some car with a baseball bat as I exit the grocery store one night.

People have a good reason to be afraid, it's a jungle out there.

Maybe if more people had jobs and money it wouldn't be this bad.


Don't for there was an estimated 37,313 highway fatalities reported in 2008.

Must've been those new Al Qaeda cars reported on Fox News :)


 2:05 am on Aug 20, 2009 (gmt 0)

This has been true for a while. Once the banks started earning bucketloads of cash again. They're always the first to know/experience both the beginning and end of a recession. The rest of us don't see the recession coming until it's here and we don't believe it's over until it's way past over. That's why we're not billionaire bankers I guess :p


 7:19 am on Aug 20, 2009 (gmt 0)

The question is, is there money left from the stimulus package for businesses and consumers after banks use it all to pay themselves bonuses?

/gasoline on fire


 7:23 am on Aug 20, 2009 (gmt 0)

"is there money left from the stimulus package"

What stimulus package?

It must be the name "stimulus package" that confuses me as the only people it stimulated were millionaires that were about to lose their big bonus packages so please correctly call it the "bonus package" so we're on the same page.

A true stimulus package would've been paid out to the bottom rung, not the top rung, to help all those losing their jobs and homes.

I was against the "stimulus package" as delivered no matter which party pushed it because it was always going to be delivered at the wrong level of the financial spectrum to truly help those that needed it.

Or perhaps you refer to the "CASH FOR CLUNKERS" program to stimulate Detroit where a local car dealer asked us to "cash in" a car I just spent over $1000 repairing last month which should be good for 3-4 years.

Yup, makes sense to me.

I'm thinking this time we'll throw Crystal Light Tea into the harbor ;)

We may be pulling out of a recession, but I think we're going head first into the silly season.


 3:39 pm on Aug 20, 2009 (gmt 0)

It's all about psychology. The world economy is largely the result of a collection of individual decisions made by people.

If you want the crisis to end, stop being paranoid and stop thinking negatively without any real reasons. Stop worrying. Start acting normally.

It's a little bit about psychology and more so in a normal downturn but at least in the US, this comes after a 10+ year drunken bender. No matter how positive you are thinking, if you wake up one day to find out you lost your 50K/yr job and have a $500K mortgage on a place that is worth 250K, just waking up and thinking positive isn't going to get you out of the mess. Should the govt be bailing people out of situations like this? No way, but they do set a double standard by bailing out the wreck less financial companies that do the same thing so everyone expects a bailout.

Common sense and history tells us that when the market economy is left unregulated the balance is disturbed with opportunists and optomists taking over to such a point that the momentum can only crash.

It depends on the definition of common sense and history. Some regulation does seem to be beneficial. Breaking down the walls in financial services between banks, investment firms, ratings agencies would see to have been a catastrophic move in the US anyway. On the other hand, some of the most regulated corps like fannie and freddie were prime causes of the disaster. One of the biggest mistakes IMHO, is the US govt positioning itself as a backstop for all these ponzi schemes (like the mortgage market). When you won’t have to take responsibility for your own failure and you know the govt will ultimately pick up the tab, there is not much inventive to act in a sensible manner. While it may cause a lot of difficulty in the short term, companies need to fail for the market to work. The "invisible hand" needs some coaching and guidance from time to time but it should not reward failure, prop up failing companies and steal money from those who have been responsible to keep these failed companies in business.

The US stockmarket clearly reflects , again , where it thinks things are going !

The US stock market doesn't reflect anything but maybe cheap money that will lead to another bubble and another even bigger crash. It may reflect the borrowed money the US govt is flooding the economy with in the form of the $8,000 home buyer credit to prop up home prices (which should be left to fall so people can afford to buy homes and the market returns to normal more quickly), the cash for clunkers program which uses even more borrowed money to prop up the car companies. This is all a mirage. It is not real wealth, just as the .com surge in stock prices and the surge in speculative home prices were not real wealth. What is it that has changed among US companies that justifies a 50% increase in stock valuations? Did soaring home prices reflect the direction of the economy? They reflected a bubble and a fantasy that money and wealth could be created on a grand scale while doing and producing nothing but nothing more. The recent run up in stock prices is the same thing. Stock prices go up when the companies come in with earnings news that isn’t as bad as the estimates that are set to not be as bad as the “experts” or investment houses expect them to be. A horrible quarter looks to be not as bad as it could have been which gives everyone a reason to celebrate and the media a reason to cheer as stock prices go up. You see it all the time. Company X was expected to lose $1.50 a share but they cooked the books and moved some stuff around and came in with a loss of only $1.47 a share and the stock goes up.

The bottom line in all of this is that the US consumes far more than it produces and it will probably go bankrupt or default in the future. At some point in the future someone will make a fortune shorting Treasuries but trying to guess at the right timing for that will probably be a losing proposition. We import tons of stuff from China and the rest of the world. We can't pay for it so they buy our T-bills so we can buy their stuff. We create bubbles here to create fake money and wealth that always pop. The world outside the US is probably in much better long term shape than the US. WE are a drag on the world economy because we just consume and get other countries to pay for it. When we need more money to pay off creditor or buy more stuff, we issue more bonds. It is not sustainable. It doesn't matter who is in office. It is the American way.

Imagine if you owned a widget plant. You invest your time, money and capital to produce widgets. This group of people across the ocean known as the US wants to buy your widgets but they don’t have any money with which to buy them. They propose to you that if you “loan” them $100,000 which they will at some point pay back with interest, they will buy $100,000 worth of your widgets. You loan them $100,000 and they buy your widgets. The next year they ask you to loan them $200,000 for your widgets. With that $200,000 they pay you interest on the first $100,000 and buy more widgets. They do this for 30 years and each year they get you to finance more widgets. At some point you want your money back and at some point you think, wouldn’t it make more sense to cut off these dead beats, keep the money here in our own company so our own people can buy own widgets?

Despite all that the best thing any individual can do is be aware of how all that stuff may affect the business they are in and make the best of it.


 11:03 pm on Aug 20, 2009 (gmt 0)

"Only when the last tree has died,
And the last river been poisoned,
And the last fish been caught,
We will realise, we can not eat money"

What about those little chocolate coins the Easter Bunny puts in my Basket? I find them quite tasty.


 2:57 pm on Aug 21, 2009 (gmt 0)

Stop worrying about everyone else and start with your own finances. Rich people get richer because they know this and they understand how to make their money work for them, and not against them.

Stop paying for 200 television channels that you don't watch and if you do watch 200 channels, stop watching television so much. Stop thinking you can afford a $500,000 house, live within your means. Stop buying cars if you can only afford a bus pass. Stop complaining that you don't make enough with your current job, get a new one or go back to school and learn to do something else. Stop blaming the government, the auto companies, big business, the "economy", the "recession", rich people, the "NWO"..stand up and take responsibility for yourselves.

Take control of your own personal financial situation - no one else is interested in whether you succeed or not - only you.

Educate yourself (and your family) about money management and proper budgeting, it's not taught in schools and it's a tragedy that it isn't.

[edited by: httpwebwitch at 2:21 pm (utc) on Aug. 24, 2009]
[edit reason] bleep [/edit]


 3:01 pm on Aug 21, 2009 (gmt 0)

Could not have said it better myself SlyGuy.

Thank you.


 3:19 pm on Aug 21, 2009 (gmt 0)

It's so sad the common sense that SlyGuy presents is, in fact, NOT common any more.

What I hate (and I'm sure many of the rest of you here also feel similarly) is the fact that even though I have been mostly been making good, common sense decisions, I still have to pay for the mistakes of others.


 3:35 pm on Aug 21, 2009 (gmt 0)

definately ..being forced to pick up someone elses tab ..annoys me ..even more when I see the guys who got rich lying whilst they "oversaw" building the phony system ..getting even richer whilst claiming that only they can fix it ..and that they have and need mega bonuses or they'll walk ..let them ..and mind they dont let the door hit them on the way out ..

agree with you slyguy ..

it's not taught in schools

deliberately ..the wolves dont need educated sheeple ..


 3:49 pm on Aug 21, 2009 (gmt 0)

Yep.. you have to pay for the bail outs.. companies who through short sighted management and egotistical CEO's manage to get themselves so far into the red that they'll never hope to see daylight again. You have to pay for the welfare mamas who know how to play the system and realize they can make far more sitting at home with 6 kids than they could ever hope to make flipping burgers at Mickey D's. You have to pay, one way or another, for the Saving's and Loan collapses and the aggressive lending practices of banks who's policy has been to give money to anyone who has a house to secure it.

YOU have to pay. I have to pay. I've been frugal with my money. I still live in the same (bleep) house I lived in 9 years ago when the money first started rolling in. I could have upgraded but I didn't because I KNEW this wouldn't last. And even if it had lasted, I like my little (bleep) house.

SlyGuy said it well. I wish I'd written that myself. Cowboy up. Take responsibility for your OWN actions and quit depending on others to bail you (bleep) out.

</end rant>

[edited by: httpwebwitch at 3:29 pm (utc) on Aug. 24, 2009]
[edit reason] please keep it clean [/edit]

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