|Since Q4 2010, combined shipments of tablets and smartphones have exceeded the number of PCs shipped, Meeker reports |
Very deceiving statement given that 84% of my traffic is from computers and laptops. Those buying tablets and smartphones mostly own desktop computers as well, it's not a replacement scenario for many.
People are buying smartphone TOO, not INSTEAD OF, imo.
How is this a home page discussion? There is no discussion here?
Have sales of laptops and desktops fallen at the same time, I wonder? I keep reading of the imminent demise of the desktop but I see no signs of it in my niches. It would be pretty difficult to navigate many of the sites I own and those I compete with on a tablet and virtually impossible on a smartphone.
|Have sales of laptops and desktops fallen at the same time, I wonder? I keep reading of the imminent demise of the desktop but I see no signs of it in my niches. It would be pretty difficult to navigate many of the sites I own and those I compete with on a tablet and virtually impossible on a smartphone. |
It's all niche dependant on how quick the tablet / smartphone eats into your viewing numbers, But are you seriously proposing that PCs / laptops will hold their own over the next couple of years?
Of course you are acting like a dinosaur thinking that in your niche the PC is the way forward. BUT, and it's a big but, the whole thing comes down to screen size and that's the real key.
If, somehow, a tablet can give its users the screen size of a PC then your dinosaur attitude may yet well prove not to be a problem. I wonder, I even guess that it's possible that a smartphone can somehow be used with a much larger screen size. If not, you are sunk.-
|How is this a home page discussion? There is no discussion here? |
Please give it a chance.
Looking at my site stats the last fortnight sees 42% from Chrome / Safari / Other mobiles. I haven't tried to break those down to device. Some will be full sized Mac workstations and larger tablets.
I anticipate the end of the free standing PC but not of workstations with a keyboard, decent sized screen and the usual peripherals. In the same way that you can get hi-fi systems that act as an amp and speaker system for your ipod you will dock your phone and use it as the processor for your workstation.
On one of my niche sites only 202 visits from a total of 4457 came from mobile phones. That means that 99.5 of my visitors still find me by using PCs. I shall not be hurrying to make any conversion just yet.
It is all dependent on niche. My sites are aimed at business users who generally have a PC on their desks so obviously people like this are not going to use their phones.
|In the same way that you can get hi-fi systems that act as an amp and speaker system for your ipod you will dock your phone and use it as the processor for your workstation. |
In business situations and company LANs?
This is an interesting phenom but I do wonder if all of the slides which use the phrase "Re-Imagination" could not simply be changed to say "Evolution"?
Are not the things we are seeing today in the marketplace just simply Product Evolution?
I don't think Re-Imagination by itself lends credence to what is actually happening.
On another point of note:
|We have seen a three fold increase in Non-PC specific traffic in the past two years. |
For reasons I won't point out is slide #84.
It's nice people can still get paid to write FUD link bait articles based on server stats and not real world usage. If you don't understand how, when and whythese devices are being used the stats are meaningless.
Of course tablets and phones are outpacing PC sales and online usage.
The power of desktops and laptops finally got where they needed to be a few years back and many people, like myself, wife and many friends and family, got dual or quad core PCs a few years back years ago are still using them simply because they're so freaking fast we simply see no need to replace them anytime soon.
Phones on the other hand were slow dogs that had to be replaced and tablets are pretty new so of course many people replaced those sluggish phones, bought those new tablets and still have our 4-5 year old desktops and laptops that are plenty fast enough.
Yes, traffic on these devices will obviously go up as we're using our new toys and people tend to surf using phones while waiting in restaurants, doctors offices, while in line to fill up at the gas station, etc. What I also see happen in my house and other places is the tablet has become the armchair browser that people use to look stuff up they see on TV because it's way more convenient than a laptop.
Has nothing to do with Windows getting creamed either, it's just that many people tend to use the internet while waiting and the odds are we have an Android phone and not a Windows desktop handy. If the Windows 8 devices just launched manage to take hold of a segment of the market we might see a shift but at this point Android is the winning system for a variety of reasons starting with Google Maps.
Many of my friends are the same way, Windows at work and home, Android or Apple on the road, it's just the way it is with the new digital divide of hardware and hardly the impending demise of Wintel.
Now that Win 8 has a stronger hand to play it may become a 3-way race but that still remains to be seen.
*gasp* incrediBILL, are you suggesting that you will keep those dektops even if you buy or already own a smartphone? But, but, the way the article reads you have to be a convert who doesn't own a laptop anymore!
I'm still waiting on more health related articles to be written about smartphones and remote devices in general. When you go see your next college football game with 80,000 fans in attendance you're likely to have 55,000 cellular devices in close proximity all sending signals through your body because of how they "sync up" every few seconds or worse, have persistent connections. Many medical tests are based on ONE cell phone near you and of course they will all claim you are safe :)
In unrelated(yeah right) news - french sperm counts are down 25% over the past few years and scientists are baffled as to why. google it. I'd wager that we see the current batch of "smart" phones in the landfills sooner rather than later.
I think it comes down to tools and toys. If there is a choice of using a laptop or a smart phone to do something most would choose the laptop. It's a more efficient way of getting something done.
The progress of smartphones is mainly because people get a free phone every time they upgrade their contract. If the phone wasn't subsidised by the carrier would we be anywhere near this figure?
Think about this. Your isp gives you a brand new pc every year you stay with them. Laptop and pc sales go through the roof.
Good point Mack but does this apply outside of the UK?
I think in most cases the device will be at least part subsidised by the carrier.
I don't think people are really buying these devices because they want them, it is just human nature, why turn down a free upgrade? You will know yourself, if you go into any phone shop there is a sales push for iPhone and top end Android devices.
Market share of sold copies/devices: it's good that MSFT is seeing some challenges of their monopoly there. Very good.
From the sound of it -even from the Windows fanboys-, 8 is continuing the tradition of Vista and ME, by getting a very low adoption rate from the users. I'm sure 9 will follow soon enough-reverting some of the unwelcome changes- if it continues this way.
Mobile devices being out there result in more mobile visits on -at least my- websites. In fact I've more users running iOS (hence iPod/Iphone/iPad) than users running the IE9 (by a serious margin). While the sites work on mobile devices, they are by far not aiming at mobile users.
What is interesting is that by market share (accumulated), iOS devices are relatively far more used by their users for some reason. There are less iOS devices than Android devices out there, but the visits of iOS devices outweigh the Android visits in the reverse (and by a lot on my sites).
Something must be causing this, my best guess is that the higher price of the Apple devices attracts (on average) more convinced users so that the devices end up in the hands of users who're using them more intensely. Alternatively it's about usability - but I guess that owning an Android device makes one familiar enough to get to learn to use it no matter what a first impression would do.
For the rest: take care with the globalizing local situations: e.g. getting "free" devices with contracts, subsidy of handheld devices etc. is not a global practice. Even the sales tactics in phone shops are quite different around the globe.
To give you an example out here: I buy my phone at an apple dealer -full price-, I call my carrier of choice to get a SIM (I might pick it up in one of their stores) and interact with them to get the contract on the account I like best. They don't touch my phone, do subsidize it and don't make me pay for years on end for a device. Even if I were to walk into a storefront of a carrier, where they do sell phones, they'll sell you a phone and/or contract (you get the SIM with the contract) but they'll not give you a phone for "free", nor can they (legally) get you into a contract you can't cancel. So, they'll not subsidize any expensive device.
End result: there are just about as many smartphones out here than elsewhere, and iPhone dominate the lanscape more than elsewhere as the subsidized units aren't "flooding" the market. Those that do not intend to use a smartphone simply do not have one.
|got dual or quad core PCs a few years back years ago are still using them simply because they're so freaking fast we simply see no need to replace them anytime soon. |
True, but its still not good for the profits made by those selling PCs or PC OSes!
|iOS devices are relatively far more used by their users for some reason |
IOS device users seem more likely to use it as their primary device for web browsing etc. TO some extent this has displaced PC use.
I do think there is potential for tablets to displace PCs a lot more than they have so far: move more stuff to the server.
|In the same way that you can get hi-fi systems that act as an amp and speaker system for your ipod you will dock your phone and use it as the processor for your workstation. |
Ubuntu have the software for that already - but they need to get a phone vendor on board.
You can already plug an Android tablet into a monitor, keyboard and mouse - but the applications are a bit lacking compared to desktop software.
|french sperm counts are down 25% over the past few years |
Numbers that have been challenged, with no reason to suspect a connection to mobile phones: most current major public health problems are down to bad diet.
The apps are a bit lacking because there is only so much you can do on a small screen. Try using a large spreadsheet for example.
|You can already plug an Android tablet into a monitor, keyboard and mouse - but the applications are a bit lacking compared to desktop software. |
The experience of using anything smaller than a laptop is also a bit lacking IMO. I find using the Internet on my Android phone a real pain. I use it but only when I don't have access to anything else. In other words to kill time reading the news and sports news on the BBC website when I am on the train. ;)
The problem is that there is whole new generation of users coming onboard who don't know any better.
Just thinking about what I wrote above. Perhaps this new generation could be introduced to PCs after ten years of using these silly wee screens. Think about what they would make of that as an experience! :)
I find such stats always interesting because I enjoy seeing who has spun what for why and who is displaying their ignorance, etc. But all that aside there are some important points to be realised:
* while the growth of desk/laptops has plateaued, especially in comparison, it has not begun to point down, the absolute numbers continue to rise.
* mobile devices are in common daily use and in both absolute and relative numbers continue to increase at a rapid rate.
* generally speaking large and small screen devices are not used in the same way in the places.
---Mobile is (generally) used more for real time social, immediate local queries, etc.
---Desktop is (generally) used more in complex and work situations, non-immediate queries/research, etc.
Depending on a site's business model the emphasis for one or the other can vary quite a lot. My sites are all evergreen information sites so attract primarily a desk/laptop using audience. However, because my ads/aff links include time and occasionally locale sensitive coupons, discount codes, etc. I do see an increasing number of mobile device users. Indeed I can almost specify this mobile traffic by locale and time...
Note: I think much of my prior mobile traffic, what little there was, were, given locale and time, bar patrons settling knowledge disputes. :)
One point of interest is that I am increasingly seeing mobile traffic spikes during certain TV shows and also the sharing of certain links on SM platforms during the same time periods. This traffic rarely converts directly/immediately (financially), however:
* the backlinks are appreciated.
* the WOM is appreciated.
* there are analytic results supporting that a small percentage do convert - financially - within a month.
Further, I know some ecom folks who derive mobile traffic surge sales during or immediately after TV shows where a character wears or uses a product/service they supply.
Thus even if one's business model is not primarily interested in mobile visitors the indirect and longer term direct benefits may make considering their accessibility/usability/content concerns worthwhile.
|Of course you are acting like a dinosaur thinking that in your niche the PC is the way forward. BUT, and it's a big but, the whole thing comes down to screen size and that's the real key. |
Dinosaurs did very nicely thank you for over a hundred million years, somewhat longer than the human race is likely to survive, and I've done OK in business for more than 50 years so far with my 'dinosaur' attitude so I don't think I'm going extinct yet.
Smartphones may be able to give a screen size of a PC one day - can't think who will buy one with a 16 inch screen though. Or do you seriously think that there are billions of people out there with better than 20/10 vision, who can easily fill in order forms on a two inch screen? You kids may be able to but we adults can't.
What he ^ says!
while the growth of desk/laptops has plateaued, especially in comparison, it has not begun to point down, the absolute numbers continue to rise.
On my main site, although the proportion of visits from PCs and laptops has fallen the volume is steady. The phone or tablet visits seem to be additional rather than replacements.
|The apps are a bit lacking because there is only so much you can do on a small screen. Try using a large spreadsheet for example. |
Bad example and so is word processing.
Tablets and even cell phones have more graphical real-estate than an Apple II or a TRS-80, both which ran Visicalc and we all ran MS Multi-Plan on terminals and Lotus 123 back on old CGA graphics adapters.
Most of these modern little devices easily exceed the old 640x480 or 80x24 text mode which was the minimum standard for productivity workstations for many years. Compare that to a Nexus 4 with 1280 x 768 4.7-inch display and I think it has sufficient display capabilities to be productive, esp. if it was attached to a bigger screen so it's easier to see.
The problem isn't whether these small machines can be used for productivity, it's whether we're too spoiled to use them and the lack of software which Win 8 solves quite nicely by making a common software platform for all sizes.
Anyone see MS Office running on Win 8 cell phone yet? ;)
Anyway, this is off topic as it has nothing to do with the internet which is primarily what people use computer for today and a tablet is a perfectly fine platform for surfing the web with plenty of screen space to be productive, especially with an external keyboard it's equivalent to a netbook.
The whole point of this thread should be not to ignore the changing trends as many websites currently fail to address mobile technology let alone multiple desktop screen sizes with outdated 800px wide fixed width websites. Eww.
What I'm failing to hear is any discussion of HTML5 and responsive design (preferred by Google for mobile sites BTW) which as webmasters is what should be important here to address these changing demographics.
If you don't mind I'll stick to my opinion that spreadsheets are not for cell phones.
|Bad example and so is word processing. |
I remember a sales person trying to get us interested in paid services relating to WAP. My thoughts at the time was that it was pointless - mobiles would get better and better to the point where people could start using them in a similar way to PCs.
While we're not quite there yet (in my opinion), we getting closer and closer.
My ultimate device would be a mobile phone similar to existing ones on the market today - compact enough to fit into my pocket, with a screen 4" or thereabouts that's good enough to use for most mobile tasks I need to do.
Then, when I want to buy something or do some serious form filling (or watch some TV/view photos) I want to be able to shake it slightly - and out pops a much larger screen for my convenience. Once we get to flip out screens I think I'll be happy (and fast downloading/uploading when mobile)!
Flip out screens yes. Possibly also wifi from mobiles to tv screens for home use. A solution will be found
The flexible screens that they are working on right now may be the answer to that.
|Possibly also wifi from mobiles to tv screens for home use |
|Desktop is (generally) used more in complex and work situations... |
That's just it. Is your potential *buyer* (your market) in a "complex or work situation" or are you more likely to find customers who're browsing the web *outside* a "complex or work situation"?
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