Forecast: To project, guess, estimate.
Their "guess" was off by 6%. I don't think that implies economic troubles...
More realistically it demonstrates the standard deviation of such forecasting...
But it wouldn't be "news" if they didn't throw up red flags every week...
many of us were here when the tech bubble burst not to long ago and companies depending on ads alone went in BK. Let's hope the economy does not slow by that much because ads WILL slow and by a lot.
As long as the online advertising market can stay ahead of the scamming/fraud market they should be alright.
My feeling though is that fraud accelerates in a tougher market and competition will price out many mid level businesses because there are less customers to target towards. (hight customer acquisition costs in the midst of higher fraud risk)
Online advertising will withstand the storm better than all the others. Adverisers control it down to the last cent spent.
Ignore the doomsters, do as Deitrich Bonhoeffer wrote "Faint not, nor fear, but go out to the storm and the action ..."
>> Ignore the doomsters
You may do so, but there is fine line between being realistic and what you call "doomster."
This time is different. It appears that cheap money will be gone for a long time. This in turn affects consumer spending, business expansions, new business openings so it will undoubtedly hit advertising. People may disagree on how much.
Once they see 20% of their 401K gone in the stock market, high gas prices, food costs, 28% credit card rates, home equity gone, uncertainty in the job market, people do hold back spending. It's a given.
The upside to the downside... Even when the economy is down... folks are always looking for deals online... reading reviews... shopping online... etc. That means people are searching... clicking ads... visiting sites... clicking ads...
I think the internet is a bit more robust than the brick and mortar shops from that perspective...
Focus on the companies whose products/services are bought by lower-income consumers directly affected by the troubled sectors.
Subprime mortgages - Bear Stearn
The other sectors may not feel a recession whatever the heck that is. Funny how they say you're in a recession before you realize it.
Newsmakers love to drum up fear. Remember when CNN among others was trying to get everyone scared stiff a few years ago about avian flu?!