netmeg - 2:49 pm on Jun 3, 2013 (gmt 0)
I have always been able (for 2 years now) to see clear patterns in the adsense stats. Up to recently that is.
It's a different world. I think Google is doing their click validation differently (more real time, less end-of-month) and I for one have never believed that all clicks get validated in the same length of time - I'm pretty sure some get flagged for a more thorough review before they're counted.
It's also very heavily tied to AdWords and what's going on there, and there have been some HUGE changes in AdWords recently.
Plus, I know I keep harping on it, but mobile mobile mobile. I'm seeing very different patterns this year as opposed to last year when it comes to mobile. And that's another thing for you to look at too - are you getting more mobile traffic, are ads appearing for that mobile traffic, are your sites rendering for smartphones and 7" tablets and 10" tablets, etc etc.
I think it's pretty much too complicated a system now to rely on any previous patterns we may have thought we've seen.