SevenCubed - 7:39 pm on Sep 4, 2012 (gmt 0)
...but a careful, informed projection of the odds.
I'm not too sure about the careful and informed aspect of it. A few weeks ago I wanted to try out the Collusion add-on for Firefox and had to take off all my browser armour protection for it to work properly (surf as a typical user). It wasn't long before I was being bombarded with IBAs about how to invest in the stock market and every "expert" out there trying to sell me their book on stock market analysis on every site I landed on. The reason was because I purposely checked, a few times, the prices for facebook and zynga as they burned on the NASDAQ. The resulting ads were being presented to someone (me) who is LEAST likely to click them. However the sites that I went to where they were presented -- I would have been more likely to click an in-context ad because they were my typical sites of interest. There has to be many many examples like that in the wild.