signor_john - 9:58 pm on Jun 7, 2009 (gmt 0)

I don't think it's as simple as when an upturn might begin, because several different factors may be at work:

1) The economy, which may show improvement in some sectors and regions before it does elsewhere.

2) Evolutionary changes in how the AdWords/AdSense program works, which may help some publishers while hurting others. (Placement targeting, the site-exclusion filter, and how Google determines whether a click is valid come to mind.)

3) Changes in the advertising industry itself, which may help some publishers while hurting others. (There are a lot of very sophisticated things happening with media buying, how ads are served, etc. that could have an impact on Joe Publisher's AdSense earnings down the road.)

4) The ratio of supply (AdSense impressions) to demand (AdSense advertiser budgets), which depends not only on the economy, but also on relative growth rates for Web pages and ad budgets.

In other words, an economic upturn would be helpful, and some analysts are predicting that ad budgets will increase later in the year. But even if budgets do increase, other factors could keep the average publisher's earnings from increasing at the same rate.