You can defend/explain as much as you like.
Google will be much more credible when their numbers reflect the economical crisis that is happening. Posting another record quarter will raise more doubts about the revenue share than ever.
Many of the pro webmasters gathered here seem to be in the "lower CTR, lower eCPM" camp. Even if this is a small sample, I tend to believe that it is quite representative. Here you will find small, medium, and large sites running Adsense.
I would be very surprised if only a disappointed mob would show up here. No, I do not see that.
Also, I do not believe that we are seeing an exponential growth in publisher figures. Any large site of significance that wants to monetize ad real estate is running Adsense already. Or had been running Adsense and quit the program. I do not see big sites with zillions of page views suddenly turning over to Adsense. (Unless Adsense silently made the application for the program easier, which in return means to let the MFA crowd in again.)
Anyway, it's hard to sell "you're doing poor, because the economy is bad" to publishers when at the same time you're saying "we're doing very well, despite the economy".