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Eazygoin - 2:04 pm on May 14, 2007 (gmt 0)
This sounds a bit like Crystal Ball stuff to me. Taking into account so many anomalies such as time on page, how many pages seen, location, etc. etc. is just too much to expect a 'likelihood of conversion' taking place. Yes, I agree that anomolies can be considered, BUT not leading to a 'likely conversion', but more of a 'general interest' in what they clicked on, rather than a click and then close the page after 2 seconds.
Google doesn't have to know if a conversion has taken place. Google merely needs to estimate whether, based on data about the type of content, user time on site, etc., a conversion is likely to take place.