mzanzig - 7:56 am on Mar 9, 2007 (gmt 0)

we all took big ecpm hits late last year...

No, no, and once again - no!

It is simply not true that "we all took big ecpm hits late last year".

First of all, who is "we all"? We all at WW? A group of publishers you know personally? The posters to this thread? - I am not affected by this. Mind you, I am not happy with my revenues, but I am NOT affected by a significant drop in eCPM (not even hit by EPC drops).

Second, what are "big ecpm hits"? Based on what? One week revenues? Monthly revenues? Quarterly revenues? And is it 10%, 20%, 50%, 90%? What is "big"? - Again, looking at my stats, I see that the "swings" (or variance coefficient) of eCPM have become smaller over time. Beginning in September '06, my eCPM has become quite predictable. And from looking at the moving 31-day-averages (again, since 09/06), I see that eCPM is swinging between 94% and 108% of the overall average. Which is actually quite good. Again, I do not see "a big ecpm hit". Not for my sites.

Third, why restrict the complaint to "late last year"? Is there a slight chance that you are in a seasonal business? - I am in a seasonal business, and in a way it is scary. You start off with a good year, and then traffic vanishes (at least enough to feel in your pockets), and you start to re-think your strategy, think whether you've done everything OK? And then, around New Years Eve, the channels suddenly open up again, traffic and clicks are back, and you are happy again and open bottles of champagne.

Sorry for the rant.

Personally, I think we should try to avoid general accusations. We have to look at each piece of data (as much as Google provides to us) and try to judge it neutrally and cool. Only if we can find EVIDENCE in the data set that something is really really wrong, we should probe whether others are experiencing a similar problem.

Just my $0.02