europeforvisitors - 3:27 pm on Dec 22, 2006 (gmt 0)

Everything rbacal said makes sense, but I can imagine another thing happening if it isn't already in place: Publisher "quality scores" that would affect not only smart pricing, but also the compensation payout.

Such an automated approach would be more scalable and evenhanded than having lower-level employees play whack-a-mole with a constantly changing population of shady or incompetent publishers. Landing-page quality scores already exist on the AdWords side, so there's a precedent for using automation and financial incentives (or disincentives) to encourage the kinds of sites or pages that Google wants to see.

Other changes are likely to occur, too, as Google wrestles with the commoditization of AdSense. AdSense is a platform, not just a product, and there's no reason why the publisher mix for any given campaign couldn't be sliced and diced in many different ways. In the offline world, direct marketers have been able to buy customized mailing lists (with names and addresses gathered from multiple sources) for years. Why shouldn't AdSense offer a similar level of flexibility, with advertisers paying more or less per click or impression according to the level of selectivity they require?