I know it sounds like a strange thing to say about MS, but in the search world it's absolutely true.
I'd also be forced to vote for MS - competition is a healthy thing.
Here's a little extra thing to think about. AOL have a VoIP product called TotalTalk, now available in Canada, I understand due to be released in the UK this week or next.
It uses global IP sound and is based on SIP, which means it will interface perfectly with Google Talk...
MS on the other hand have yet to jump on the VoIP bandwagon (and they've now missed the opportunity to buy Skype), but given AOL's market share of IM, it could be an ideal opportunity to convert both MSN and AIM users to VoIP and grab some instant market share. In fact, between the two, they'd be bigger than Skype.
I really think that MS and G will both want AOL. Quite badly.