Jbrookins - 3:54 pm on Jul 12, 2007 (gmt 0)

While I don't necessarily agree with the analyst, I think the assertion that you can use the internet 10 years ago as evidence of the internet 10 years from now is a bit off as well. Whereas only 18% of the US population alone had internet access in 1997, over 67% have it today. (That is, 70million total users worldwide in 1997, with 1.2 BILLION today.)

As any market matures, it's propensity for radical change becomes significantly reduced. You can see this everywhere you look, including tech companies - Microsoft/Macintosh, Coke/Pepsi, AMD/Intel. While these companies CAN be unseated, it isn't an easy thing to do and simply having a better product won't do it.

Mind share and market penetration are significantly different now, with established brands familiar to a significantly larger userbase. With large populations of users that have significant brand loyalty, it's hell to break into.

This isn't the wild west anymore.

[edited by: Jbrookins at 3:58 pm (utc) on July 12, 2007]