gibbergibber - 1:58 pm on Jul 12, 2007 (gmt 0)

--If no newcomer steps up, Google will end up with 90%. --

The thing is, such a scenario is extremely unlikely given the history of high tech companies. Except for Microsoft, who have something of an artificial monopoly, no high tech company has ever dominated a specific market for very long.

Some companies like IBM and Apple have done well over an extended period, but only by regularly changing the focus of their company.

In 10 years time, the Indian and Chinese markets will be much more important, and I don't know how much of a brand Google is with internet users in those markets. It could be that homegrown search services will overtake Google in those countries, and that will have an ever increasing effect on Google's worldwide market share.

In 10 years time search may be completely unrecognisable, perhaps we'll even abandon a traditional search the same way we've abandoned Yahoo-style directories. It seems unthinkable now, but then so did the death of directories back in 1997.