lgn1 - 12:03 pm on Dec 15, 2011 (gmt 0)
I actually tried Conversion Optimizer, and my sales dropped by 10%, and they cost me more. They went back to normal when I turned it off. I gave it a month.
Now I hear some people do have success with conversion optimizer. I guess it has to do with the type of business you are in.
From my experience with the current adwords decision makeing tools; is that they are making assumptions, based on too little data.
Google really needs to hire a statitician, as there testing methods introduces bias; and they do not test anywhere near the 95% confididence interval.
The worst offender is the "ad rotation" feature. If you are doing a/b testing, do it yourself; make sure ads are rotated evely during the testing and plug your results in a a/b testing significance calculator, and don't make a decision until you have a 95% confidence interval, and preferably a 99% confidence interval.
If you use your gut feeling, you will be wrong most of the time. I'ts human nature to detect patterns where none exist.
Don't get me wrong. I Love google adwords, its just that they have dropped the ball on unbias statistical sampling. Hopefully someday they will introduce rigourous statistical tools, that the average joe/jill can understand and use.