Harry - 4:49 pm on Dec 27, 2009 (gmt 0)

The argument that because Android will be on every cell provider network and therefore will ultimately win is bogus. It's like believing in Norse Gods or something. A lot of people say that because Microsoft won the desktop OS war by being on most systems and that Apple didn't that the current mobile race is exactly the same set up and that history will repeat itself. That's called historical determinism. It's like believing in religion, Santa Claus, and ignoring that all the specific variables that were present in the desktop OS war are currently present today. The conditions we have today are totally different than those we had 20 years ago. Nothing's the same. For example, there was not real Internet as we know it today. The world wasn't a global place as it is today. Consumers were not as informed. That's only a few of the variables that have changed that makes today's current mobile OS war totally different. But it's so much easier, sexy and convenient to say that today's mobile war is the sequel to the desktop wars. It's black and white and doesn't force one to think of the various shades of grey.

For Android to continue to succeed, it needs the backing of Google. Google's brand name, currently is in search and email (the regular people who don't follow tech). In marketing, there is something known as brand expansion or something similar. Extending a brand to another market is not an easy thing to do. Like Nokia making notebooks makes no sense for the average consumer. Nokia is known for phones. Apple has been successful at using its brand to expand into new products categories. Will Google be as proficient? As of now, I say no.

Also for the OS war to be a repeat of the desktop wars, Google has to be solvent. The way that company is moving these days, before it is ever broken up by the government, it may be a victim of its own size. Nothing is clear about how well Google is managed, the internal conflicts of the company and what are the risks the company faces. Just a change in advertising rules online could decimate its entire business model overnight and severely curtail its support for Android.

I say that there is a third bubble and you've read it here first (actually, I've been saying there needs to be more scrutiny at the workings of Google from a financial perspective for a while now - but I've been dismissed as a crying wolf type of guy).

History will not repeat itself. Saying so, ignores the fact that outside of the West/industrial nations, mobile usage is different and has other needs. I have no idea where it's all going, but I'll certainly not shut the book on history now and declare Google a winner. That would be silly, and a lack of judgment.