Are you all forgeting that flash is streaming media!
No matter how fat the swf file is, if optimized correctly, a person on 14.4 modem would not have any problem viewing it!
To avoid useing preloaders, the front end of your flash file should be very light weighted and only use vector graphics. This way the heavyer stuff can load while the veiwer is occupied by what is on the screen now.
e.g. A very short intro works well for this with a small amount of animation.
How very true!
<edit> fix my bad typing </edit>