simstar - 12:22 pm on Jan 16, 2009 (gmt 0)

...if current trends continue exactly as they have been doing in the recent past. This is an important qualification. Any number of roadblocks could fall in China's path between now and 2020.

2020 is not too far in the future and it involves far more than drawing a line between two dots. It is easy to see to anyone that China is going to overtake the US very soon (within the next 10-40 years).