digitalv - 2:29 pm on Jun 8, 2010 (gmt 0)
Three real examples of sites I run using AdSense:
Site 1 gets about 350,000 hits a month and makes about $800 in AdSense revenue. Site 2 gets about 1.2 Million hits a month and makes $900 in AdSense revenue. Site 3 only gets about 1,500 hits a month and makes $150. [edited this, these are not uniques just page views: the number of uniques is on average 1/3rd the number of hits]
The moral to the story: your revenue will vary more by how likely your visitors are to click ads than by the amount of traffic. In all cases, the click rate is about 1%-2%. So why do the numbers vary so widely? Because the payout rates vary.
If your website topic is something where advertisers are paying several dollars per click, you're going to make more money on that same 1-2% of visitors than on a site where the best-matched ads are only paying 25 cents a click.
If you want to estimate this better, think about what keywords are related to your site's topic, then see what people are paying per click for those words in AdWords. Based on my experience (with sites of varying topics and traffic levels), only 1 or 2 out of every hundred visitors are going to click an ad. So a site that gets 10,000 uniques a day is going to get an average of 150 clicks. So the question is your revshare cut based on average of $1.00 a click or an average of $0.10 a click?