Ralph_Slate - 1:41 pm on Jun 11, 2013 (gmt 0)
Yes, I have been tracking this phenomenon for nearly a year. I noticed that my Organic/Direct/Referal numbers are relatively constant despite my traffic levels. The only thing that seems to vary them are mobile hits - on weekends, when I get more mobile traffic, I get more "direct" than on a weekday.
I also noticed a slight shift in these numbers on October 13, 2012 - the day my lost-traffic-from-April-24 returned - the percentage shifted away from referrals and toward organic.
The pattern I saw with organic was that from Jul 1 2012 until about Sep 21 2012, it was always between 60% and 65%, and usually at about 63%. Then, in late September, my site's season niche started to increase. By early October my organic number shifted down to about 57% to 60%.
Then my recovery happened, and the organic number moved up to the 63% to 68% range. It cycled more, due to mobile traffic on weekends related to my site's niche.
In mid-December, the pattern was disrupted. I'm not sure if that's related to general Christmas traffic (my site isn't related to Christmas though) or maybe something to do with college students going home on break (my site isn't particularly targeted to college students though).
Then, in January, my niche had an event which caused traffic to rise back to historic levels - the widgets in my niche had been locked out by management and they returned in early January. This changed the pattern too as interest in the niche picked up. The range shifted to the 61% to 65% range.
On May 1 2013, my site's niche had its peak interest day due to an external event. Following that day the numbers shifted again, and are now in the 56% to 63% range.
I noticed no major shift after the Penguin 2.0 event, although my "referral" category is showing a bit more variability than it had been prior to that date (spikier).
I feel like these numbers are important indicators, though I can't pin down exactly why.
I'm not sure if it's appropriate to post a graph here, but I'd be willing to do that if people are interested in seeing the numbers.