"Sure you can when you base it on averages and multiple data points, including a per user basis and search ending percentage"
But there will always be outliers; there are tons of high quality sites on the internet and not all of them can possibly conform to similar SERP click data - same goes for low quality websites.
"Does the page in question exist in the index at all?"
Yes, and it ranks #1 for the site/domain name (which is normal).
"But do look for anything red-flaggish like "couldn't load robots.txt" or huge numbers of non-200 responses. This early in the site's life, there shouldn't be any redirects or 404s. Except the purely mechanical /index.html and domain-name canonicalization redirects. Search engines will always ask for the wrong name now and them, just to test you. (Bing more than google, for some reason. And MJ12 loves to leave off directory slashes. And so on.)"
There is a 404 but that's because there were two pages with the same content (post page and the homepage) and I only wanted the content to be on the homepage so I 404'ed the post page. Surely that wouldn't cause any serious issues?