tedster - 11:43 pm on Nov 1, 2012 (gmt 0)
This sounds like the kind of issue some are wrestling with in the traffic shaping and zombie traffic [webmasterworld.com] discussion. And no, after a long time we still don't have any consensus in this area at all. Just some suggestive guesswork and observations.
Maybe your approach to analysis can turn on some light bulbs. Most of the observations so far have been from commercial sites, not forums.