UK ecommerce site, Pandalised April 2011, traffic fell 10% on the 19th, major shake up in results in our niche, increased to 20% drop at the start of the week but now seems to be coming back up as results settle down (conversion is another story however!).
Seeing some ranking improvements today, newly introduced sites have gradually fallen away along with some old affiliate sites although only in select cases, not all. The only successful affiliate sites in our niche have been EMD's with several pages of content but they seem to have suffered with this update.
However, one network of single page EMD's is holding its' own, all interlinked, all single page domains with affiliate content units (i.e. no content) - the very definition of spam in my book. Difficult to justify why those are doing okay at this point while content affiliate sites have suffered. Terms are equally as competitive.
However, things are still moving around big time so it's not over.
Haven't used Adwords for 6 months. I once suspected there was an Adwords/organic rankings connection but purely from the viewpoint that if you're prepared to spend to be seen for a certain phrase and presumably you're getting a ROI, then you're probably an important player for that phrase. But I think it would only be a minor influence at most, taken into context with everything else you're doing. We never saw a backlash from ditching Adwords, put it that way.
Quality links are producing small gains on the main terms whereas pages with no or fewer quality inbound links have fallen to varying degrees depending on competitiveness.
I would say wait a week and see, but next week there will be something else!