shazam - 1:03 pm on Oct 16, 2011 (gmt 0)
I think you have to look at the whole picture.
If you don't have quality click/conversion tracking setup then you really have no way of knowing.
From my experience in the past, most traffic coming from deeper in the search is low quality/spammers. There is a big difference between #1 and number #7 for example. Not only do you get more traffic with #1, but you get a much higher percentage of buyers/joiners. Each query is different, but this is a common thread among most keywords.
These days, g has made it impossible to really determine your exact organic rank and I'm sure this was by design. If you want to play, you have to pay.
User search behavior could be changing, but I doubt it's changed that much. I still think the majority of buyers click only the top few links and are too impatient to dig much deeper.