hairycoo - 12:05 pm on Sep 28, 2011 (gmt 0)
I wonder if it could be the history of the "wrong" page. The "right" page seems to often be a newer page created to be more relevant for a particular search. But the "wrong" page seems to be so well established in SERPS that it's too much of a competitor for the new page to outrank.
Another theory of mine (again based on gut instinct) is that something about the "right" page offends Google in some way. But Google knows that the website is the most relevant result for that query so it goes for the second most relevant result. In my case I can't say it was the number of links.