One year before my 20th HS reunion, all my classmates joined FB. More joined right after the reunion. That was 2 years ago. In the last 12 months, posts by my old classmates has dropped off significantly. Probably down by 2/3rds.
I realize my generation is older, and not integrated with social media like younger generations, but it's definitely on the decline for my 200+ circle.
They've got kids to raise, bills to pay, and other life hurdles. They don't have the luxury of time to waste on something as inconsequential as FB, let alone Google+. They post a few pics of their kids now and then, and some other misc stuff, and that's about it. It's dropped off a lot because I think they know, deep down, it's just not that interesting.
When 90 percent of all tweets, FB and other postings are about as exciting as someone went to the Mall and bought new shoes, or someone celebrated a birthday, Social Media just doesn't match it's own hype that a bunch of "experts" on the left or right coast are telling me I should be hyped up about. It might be part of the culture now, but it's a cultural wasteland of nonsense.
All the hype around Social Media involves the simplest and most inherently inaccurate sort of predicting there is: taking a current popular event and extrapolating it out, but never counting for changes, new advancements, and "black swans" that cannot be seen.
I'm sure Social Media will always be around, but it will become about as exciting as blogs and free email. Something else will appear on our radar screens and then the hype will build, and those same experts on the left and right coast will be telling me I should get hyped about "the next big thing."
When every body is telling me "this is going to be big and grow forever!" - I am skeptical. You mean, like the housing market is going to be big and grow forever? Or blogs? Or Portals? Or free e-cards? Or shopping search engines? The list goes on.
That's my cynical rant.