Here's what's curious to me - who gained that long-tail traffic. I work with all kinds of sites, from one-man shops up to some big brands, and I don't have a clue where the long-tail traffic went. All the reports we're getting in this thread are either stable or down, and that's what I see, too.
But the organic long-tail traffic still exists and it is going somewhere. I really doubt that it was all absorbed by other Google pages.