Shaddows - 3:24 pm on May 10, 2010 (gmt 0)
OK, your traffic is not going to Froogle. What about the other options?
I'm not saying Google searches went down by a third. I'm saying that
[LONGTAIL searches] x [SERP CTR] = down by between 10-50%
And I'm further saying that longtail reduced because of a specific reason. Namely, that historically people refined their searches, resulting in longtail. Now they stay on Google property, using Google innovations for refinement, rather than adding or changing keywords.
CTR would be reduced for the same reason- people "keep clicking" on refinements, rather than critically evaluating the PSERP and deciding it's returning the "right answer". In other words, instead of checking "is this what I wanted" by inspecting results, users are checking "is there any better suggestions on left-hand navigation" REGARDLESS of the 'fitness' of the results.
20% of people forgoing typed refinement + 10% of people continuing clicking would result in aprox 30% lost longtail traffic