dertyfern - 4:17 pm on Feb 11, 2010 (gmt 0)
Somethings missing. You get 200+ backlinks a day so the 200 recipricals shouldn't make a dent in your backlinks profile.
Adding nofollow tags to outbounds will have no negative effect that I'm aware of.
Something else must have been done if indeed you're in a penalty and not in some temporary disappearance from serps.