zett - 6:44 am on Jan 22, 2010 (gmt 0)

Personally, search is right where I would hit Google, because it's their foundation and if / when their search market share declines, so does the rest of what they own.

Yes, and no.

Yes, because search is Google's foundation AND the place where most of the profit is generated. Adsense may generate as much as 31% of the revenue, but since Google has to share a lot of this revenue with publishers, the profit share from Adsense is probably less than 10% (I did not bother to look up the exact figures). So search is the financial foundation, and an attack here is much needed.

No, because competing "just" in search will leave out many many other areas where Google is =really= weak and can not take too many blows. Take news and content for example. If Microsoft were smart they would seek exclusive deals with the most important MSM properties on the web AND MAKE A BIG FUZZ ABOUT IT. While many might deny the importance of MSM today, those media still draw in tremendous amounts of people. Also, if they would sign such deals, you might also see a shift in reporting, away from the "Google love" we are still seeing today towards a more serious reporting.

But even if Microsoft does not attack Google where it would be easier (than in search): there are many companies and interest groups that have an axe to grind with Google. This will ultimately kill Google. They made just too many enemies. It's just a matter of time until the perception in the general public will change. Personally, I believe this will happen in 2010.