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tedster - 8:36 pm on Feb 23, 2007 (gmt 0)
Much of the current SERP shifting we see may be just such tests: Google trying to improve their on-page content analysis -- and also, possibly, fold in more "user experience" metrics. The data gathered from personalized search may be quite useful in this regard. I think there will be a place for backlinks in the algo going forward, just not such a dominant one. Otherwise, paid link advertising will be a terrible struggle for both Google and site owners.
I do think Google undertands that they are plugging holes in the dike with their thumbs right now - and sooner or later they will run out of thumbs. Something (maybe more than one thing) must eventually replace the dominating force of backlinks in the algo.