Napoleon - 3:07 pm on Aug 6, 2003 (gmt 0)

>> I just can't see where Google's competition is going to come from <<

The problem may be that Google can't see it either. However, how about:

a) Yahoo, once they replace Google onboard

b) MSN... in the unlikely even that they can bypass their greed for quick return and dump the PPC mentality

c) An old timer like AV, with a clean up and prime time advertising

d) A yet to be unveiled newcomer

The point I made above was basically that the decline of a search engine has almost always been precluded with this sort of over-confidence: the assumption that they can take liberties with their returns and get away with it.

Often it has been too many ads. Sometimes accompanied by neglect.

The current situation at Google does remind of this. With all the junk on board (Amazon, PDF, etc) the returns look very poor in many areas compared to FAST. Sorry, Google apologists, but that is true.

The issue though is even bigger than that. The real issue is that this is just the latest in a catalog. A trend... and a trend is usually caused by an underlying change, in this case perhaps a change in attitude and focus.

Maybe, as other engines have fallen partly through over focus on PPC and ads, Google may be stumbling because it is more interested in Adwords/Adsense/etc than in keeping its true engine clean and sparkly. Think about it. Do you think this sort of thing would have happened 2 years ago? I don't.

The company focus may well have changed. As they have concentrated on the DIRECT earners, they may have lost pride in, and commitment to, their core product... which of course would be folly... because as we all know, without that they are nothing. But the same could have been said of almost all the former search engine leaders.

OK, all this is speculation, but the signs are clearly there. Just look back at all the errors and problems over the last 6 months. Look at the state of returns today, with all the junk mentioned above, the index pages that come and go, the toolbar out of date, and so and so forth (SteveB seems to have a good list).

Again, I do hope I am wrong, but one thing is for sure... this ISN'T the Google of old.