callivert - 12:13 pm on Sep 7, 2007 (gmt 0) Of course, we all hope that it's (4), or at least (3).
My son is currently three. I can't imagine him being interested until he's finished college and got serious about life. By then, will domains still matter?
I see four possible scenarios in 2027;
1) the relationship between browsers and search is completely blurred. new technologies that have no relationship to domain names increasingly drive navigation. domains are no longer relevant.
2) there's a kind of inverse power distribution of domains, with .com king, followed by .org, .net, but but a long tail of TLDs, and the public are more aware of the wide range available;
3) local dominates domaining, no point in generic .coms.
4) domains are totally locked down. The only people in the game are corporations, obscenely rich individuals, and those "lucky #*$!s" individuals that bought in way back around the turn of the millenium.
Of course, we all hope that it's (4), or at least (3).