jmccormac - 8:43 am on Jul 13, 2006 (gmt 0)

I haven't registered or attempted to register a .EU domain. My gut tells me that .EU may ultimately prove to be "too much of a good thing": too broad in its application to prove its merit in most cases.

It could be more like a me-too gTLD than too much of a good thing. But there was never any proof that it would be a good thing. And handing it over to the smurfs in Eurid was a recipe for disaster - these people had never run a gTLD and the servers fell over on the first day of the landrush. And as for the dodgy Benelux trademarks and the ADR - this was a great example in how not to run a gTLD.

My thinking, in part, is the uncertainty of the domain message: Are you saying that your business reach is pan-European? You have offices all across the EU? You welcome people from across the EU? (If you're part of the EU do you really have a choice?)

I'm Irish first and a European second. I'd expect that British people would be British first and European second, ditto for the French, Germans, Italians and the rest of the EU. Local marketing deserves a local domain. And given that most people in Europe probably associate the EU and the European Commission with corruption and bureaucracy, a .eu domain isn't really the selling point that these EC/Eurid people think that it is.

Now, for pan-European issues some of the keyword domain names (trade, travel, law, etc.) it may make perfect sense, at least to the degree that a website addresses EU policy, rules, regulations, etc. Perhaps businesses that span the EU. Otherwise I'm a doubting Thomas about the vitality of the TLD.

It might have been a lot easier to reserve .eu as a regulatory gTLD for EU use? That sounds like a far better use of the .eu - when there is a single EU identity, then that would be the time to open it up.

So, now I see 2 million registrations in the first few months. I'll write off 30-40% of those to utter silly land grabs: Word domains of little real appeal, opportunity excites the mind type action. "Better get it before someone else does."

I think that 30-40% is very conservative. Try 60-80%. Most of the .eu domains are never going to be used or will end up as linkswamp pages with PPC advertising.

I'll venture that 10% of the registration may qualify as "defense of brand".

Potentially. Though the sheer incompetence of the sunrise phases means that any benefit that these businesses would have had to launch a .eu in the midst of the .eu hype has been lost. The smurfs in Eurid totally underestimated the number of domain applications to be checked and many companies might not even see their domain go live until Christmas or even next year. The core of any gTLD is its business users. Without that credibility, it is not business friendly and can easily be painted as a squatter's paradise.

So, maybe I'm off a bit on my first number? Maybe it's not 30-40%, but more like 80% of the initial flurry that are likely to lapse in the next 2 years?

More in line with what I expect to see happen.

2 million domains: What percent make applied business sense?

Look at the sunrise phase applications and divide by 10? Then look at the 301s to the real websites and you may have a figure for defensive registrations.

The .eu gTLD is such a mess that it is difficult to make any reliable predictions. Right now, it is looking like another .biz or .info gTLD.

Regards...jmcc