hellraiser1 - 12:13 am on Oct 13, 2008 (gmt 0)

Though many may feel that their placement, and marketing perhaps will overcome the more competitive consumer demand, however, the media intensifying these global issues i am sure will undoubtedly have an effect on holiday sales. as such, e commerce gift sites like mine, who do 70% of their yearly revenue in the months before Christmas, perhaps have the most to worry. Remember the bigger picture though...

The NRF predicts a less then 2% sales growth this holiday season, the worst growth in many years, perhaps since 1991. E commerce looks less gloomy, whereas a 8-9% sales growth is predicted (down from 19% last year when consumer fears of the economy and "soft sales" truly started). It is growth, however, it depends on new competition in your niche. Luckily I assume there have been less new "competition" created this year as the economy has been unmotivated, as well as inventory cut-backs from big-box like competitors. This could lead to relative growth for us anyway.

What dies this mean? Well, i truly don't know anymore. For us, there will be less market-share. As such, Ive taken more of a proactive measure on positioning, marketing and value. That way I can secure the "minimal" growth in my vertical.

One hard decision is merchandising. In previous years we overspent and overstocked in the run up to holiday, however, this time we simply cant take that risk. A lot of items are on preorder, and grouped now. Slow selling items are even on sale for 50% off in attempts to keep cashflow. I feel though if every e-tailer cuts back on inventory however, they will automatically make less, and allow for the smaller customer base to search else-wear for their "perfect gift" This change may really depend.

any thoughts?