SevenCubed - 7:10 pm on Aug 20, 2012 (gmt 0)
I don't think you're going to see sub $5 that soon. It'll probably take another 2 years to reach that level -- probably about $7 range is where it will settle. That's what it is really worth right now. But, between then and now there are many opportunities for overly optimistic forecasts to be spun off by the PR machine to hype up and paint a rosy looking future growth picture only months later for the damage control department to say "due to market circumstances we missed expected earnings".
The big investors (current large shareholders) will not let it drop that low. They will step in and keep buying shares when the values drop too low thereby propping up the value.
I see that happening today in fact because the price has been as low as $18.75 and as high as $20.06. That has nothing to do with performance and only a bit to do with supply and demand. It's just price protection at work. It's probably going to linger around the psychological level of $20 where it now sits for the foreseeable near future, with small spikes up or down.
But all things said anything can happen and I would much rather see hal12b's version of events unfold so that this crime of the century gets it's proper exposure.