Webwork - 9:17 pm on Mar 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

Let me break it down for you as follows:

1. My first question was/is: "What exactly is "local search"? I haven't seen much in the way of an exacting discussion. No problem. We can reasonably make up our own definition.

2. Who is measuring "local search" and "what criteria" are being applied in order to cull out the local search component of search? Again, not a lot of discussion out there in the world for such a hot sector, but if you dig into my other posts in the LocalSearch thread you'll see there's been an attempt to break it down. Interesting point: No links to outside authorities discussing the issues I raised in any detail.

3. Is anyone breaking local search down as follows:
A. Local to local (within 10, 20, 50 miles)?
B. Local to remote (Something consumed remotely, such as a hotel room)?

Again, in my research, I haven't come across much robust analysis or discussion. Why? Because the info is "proprietary"? Kelly has the data? Really? Who gave it to them? Google? Yahoo? I somewhat doubt that, but no problem. Salesmen will have to use something in their sales pitch to Bob the Plumber. What will it be? "Lots of people do search!" What if Bob & Betty (see below) do a better job of educating Bob the Plumber about the realities of local-to-local search and web traffic?

4. If most local search IS local - for goods and services within 10 - 20 miles - then do locals really need Google or Yahoo or any big company to handle the task? My answer: No. Bob and Betty, the local county web mavens, can likely do a handy job of marketing "local online search about local businesses" rather nicely. Bob and Betty can market their business search service on the county level rather nicely I'm sure.

5. So, this leads me to this conclusion: Given their business model, overhead, infrastructure, etc. I see no long term remedy for PRINT MegaBigYellowPagesCorp in dealing with #4.

6. So, for "local search" I think that leaves "local to remote" as the likely profitable battleground for MegaBigCorp. However, there's a problem for MegaBigCorp in local-to-remote search.

7. IF most of the profitable "local to remote search" falls within a certain baker's dozen of verticals, such as: Hotels, real estate, entertainment (tickets) for when you arrive remotely, local product delivery to kin (flowers to mom, care package to son in college), and a few other THEN, in that scenario, could the likes of Hotels.com and a few other well developed and marketed verticals end up ruling the roost? Skimming the highest value search with the least "other overhead", thereby being the most profitable in the local-to-remote sector? I think the answer is "Yes". (You see, Hotels.com isn't burdened by the other 10 billion searches for celebrities, etc.)

8. While discussing the impact of the select verticals on local-to-remote let us not forget that there will also be a certain amount of Bob & Betty from Oshkosh meets Bob & Betty from DesMoines going on. That is, local search by locals getting connected. CraigsList meets BobandBetty'sList. Locals promoting remote locals. Deduct X additonal dollars for MegaBigCorp from the advertising dollar pot.

9. Just how dead are the yellowpages, when it come's to "Local to Local" promotion, their life blood? My prediction: Dinosaur dead.

10. Just how much trouble can BarryDiller.com be to MegaBigSearchEngine.com with his crafty handling of local-to-remote search, in the form of Hotels.com, RealEstate.com, and a few others? BIG, in my opinion. He has quite effectively zoomed in on the most profitable venues of "Local to Remote" search. If he handles the issue of best pricing and best info the slice of the pie for everyone else shrinks dramatically.

11. Have I read much in the way of analysis of the above when digging down into sites and companies that cater to the IYPs, etc. No. Do I think I have some small handle on why there's not a lot of detailed discussion and analysis? Yes. It's too scary and depressing for some - like the local print YPs - to discuss.

12. Is local search all about "advertising dollars"? Well, yes and no. It's about the dollars, ultimately. Not much to discuss there. That's simply truth. However, on the subject of dollars - forgetting all the other issues I've covered - wasn't the WWW supposed to be about disintermediation and reducing overhead? SO, in theory, in a short while, the costs of "getting the word out effectively" should be going down, right? In theory, at least, the pool of advertising dollars might actually shrink due to WWW efficiencies, yes? Maybe. Doubtful. Everything seems to keep costing more. Why should advertising be an exception. ;-)

13. Back to BobandBettysList. IF Bob and Betty can deliver as many new clients to Webwork,Esq. as MegaBigYellowPages.com did and only charge Webwork,Esq. $200, whereas MegaBigYP charged Jeff $15,000 for the same or lesser results, then what? (What has already happened by the way.)

So, my prediction:

Print yellow pages are dead within 10 years. Bob and Betty, and X# of good, well planned and executed "local by locals for locals" will kill them and you CAN'T deal with this vision of the future by buy "buying them out". (Notice the consolidation in the yellow pages industry. Dinosaurs eating dinosaurs.) Why can't MegaBig 'fix the problem' by using the buy out approach? Because more local-to-local sites will simply crop up due to the lower thresholds to entry.

Online yellow pages, if they don't find a better distribution model, are dying.

BarryDiller.com is that loud "local search that is local to remote" sucking noise you hear and it's likely he will only get better.

That leaves X amount of advertising dollars on the table and, IMHO, if the WWW works like it's supposed to that pot may get smaller, not bigger. When you don't have to print yellowpages and ship yellow pages, and print papers, etc. the costs associated with advertisng SHOULD get smaller. We'll see.

So, on the subject of local search - when I look at the agendas of various conferences - I think to myself: It's interesting times and the dinosaurs aren't really talking about it and I don't see too many conference heading about "let's talk about BarryDiller.com eating our lunch" headlines.

I don't think it's quite game over as now there are a variety of verticals cropping up to compete with the SEs. In 2001 there was a lot of talk about how portals were dead. Now, portals at the local (city) level are the next big battleground and the local media outlets - newspapers and television - just might have an edge there if they wake up and don't blow it.

That's the industry in a nutshell. There's a lot to talk about that isn't being talked about, including how BobandBetty, WW members, have a very real chance to open up a nice local business to business model.