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inbound - 10:09 am on Sep 17, 2009 (gmt 0)
I don't have precise numbers but the value of being #1 in organic is much higher versus #1 beside the map (even though it's often above the organic results). We have seen a small reduction in visitors over time as the "10 packs" have spread through local results - it started on only a few defined seaarches and is growing in number all of the time as Google get more confident. I know the vast majority of people are still using the organic results as they have more information than the listings beside the map. It may be that the 10 packs attract 15% of the clicks on pages with them, but you are still looking at 85% or so being on the organic listings - do you want to put all of that traffic in jeopardy? The reason others are spamming local is because they are not #1 in organic - they need to, your client does not need to spam local. Also, I would find many searches that they get traffic on that do not trigger a map, and show them to your client - it's still the case that the vast majority of searches you will get traffic from won't trigger a 10 pack (unless you are unusual). If your traffic profile is anything like normal for a local business, you'll be attracting traffic on many long tail searches that are unlikely to show a 10 pack for some time/ever.
If a client is #1 in the organic listings for many terms that deliver traffic then you have an easier route to getting them to agree to stick with the "rules".