I think THAT is the key to everything one way or another.
* Simply put: if they let google crawl their data. No way they'll win.
* If they keep G shut out... they got a shot.
That's a big factor in why Google Korea is still only 3% of the Korean search market as opposed to 65% for homegrown local Naver. Naver has the best results (Knowledge search results--what Yahoo copied and made into Answers, as well as blogs) and blocks google from crawling it. People want Answers style results.. .google can't give it. As such, there is no real incentive to use Google.
It then just becomes a factor or what USERS end up wanting more. If people WANT social graph or crowdsourcing info... and google can't give it to them via search.
Slow loading etc is a technical issue (ie: eventually will /can be solved). But you can't make ppl want webpages if they really want to know what 100 of their buddies say is teh best computer to buy. They will probably need webpages to just act as backup research for such recommendations.
If I were fb... I'd block google to my last breath. and pump up there search type features as much as possible in the meantime.