rogerd - 3:54 pm on May 27, 2009 (gmt 0)

It's very hard to predict growth for a community in advance, though obviously your successful competitor gives you an order of magnitude to strive for years down the road.

Your growth rate will depend on two things:

1) How effectively you can drive traffic to the forum (via blogs, other forums, SEO, social media, viral features, etc.)

2) How effectively you can engage and retain new arrivals.

#1 will determine your growth rate, but all will be for naught if you ignore #2. Just as businesses are often accused of chasing new customers rather than focusing on their current customers, communities can spend too much time outside and not enough time inside.

Good luck, I wish I could provide a better estimate of __% growth per month or __ new members per day. The nature of the biz makes that impossible, though I am generally encouraged by your competitor's success.