ergophobe - 8:21 pm on Mar 5, 2010 (gmt 0)
>>Whoops, it's down to 32%
That said, I think it's asymptotic and we don't know where the asymptote is.
In the USA
From 1950 to 1960, television penetration went from 9% to 87%
By 1980, it was 97.9%
In the last 30 years, it's mostly been stuck around 98.2% with some minor fluctuation, probably due to sampling error.
I would say the asymptote has been reached with TV and we're likely to see penetration decline as other media compete.
Meanwhile, in Africa, TV penetration isn't expected to reach 50% until 2015 (though it's already at 90% in Algeria and Egypt and a couple of other countries).
Meanwhile, in the US, cable/satellite subscribers stand at about 90% (2009) and in 2005 it had been growing about 1% per year for several years. So though growth is slow, I don't think the asymptote has been reached, but we're clearly getting there and this is a better analog to the internet than TV penetration (upfront cost versus monthly service cost).
Of course, surveys also show that most people opt out not because of availability or affordability, but lack of interest, which I think is increasingly the case with the internet.
[of course, in my case, I have no TV access by choice and no DSL access at home by constraint]