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Scarecrow - 5:28 pm on Jul 17, 2008 (gmt 0)
If a 404 status is seen by your browser at any point during this fetch, then I suspect the answer is that the AVG user will be sent to the adware page within a second or two.
The redirect question is a good one. That's something I didn't try. My feeling is that you can answer this yourself if you have a way of capturing all the headers seen by your browser when you fetch that page. I use "Live HTTP Headers," which is a free add-on for FireFox.