Personally I think Yahoo is slowly pushing PT out of the loop.
Out of the loop? PT is one of their prime resellers, so why would they be pushed out of the loop, much less after the certification process? (Assuming they passed... if they didn't pass, I'll laugh for days)
Luck? I think the success of changing URLs is related to the depth of the penalty (whether it's on a particular page or an entire site).
Penalties/editorial actions are always given on a per-domain basis. If you only have ONE spammy page out of like 3,000 good pages, your domain will have a judgement against it.