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WordTracker Prediction Accuracy
Is is useful at all?
ChrisXenon




msg:3205565
 10:50 am on Jan 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

I've been using Word Tracker for a long time on and off, but I can't really say I've ever had what you might call success with it.

You find the phrases, make the pages, buy the ads and wait. Nothing.

So recently, I decide to get rigorous on it's @ss.
I used Wordtracker to find a high-scoring five-word phrase with a KEI of 900. WT predicted 18 searches a day.

Then I made a page and a GoogleAd for that phrase. I used:
1. All languages
2. All countries
3. All match types
4. Made sure the ad was on page 1

- I think that this means that my ad will now count all impressions at Google. Anyone disagree?

OK - if it does, then I am all set to measure the Real-World accuracy of WT's prediction. Conclusion? WT was entirely and completely wrong. NOT ONE SINGLE HIT in 10 days or so. 180 hits missing.

Statistical fluke? I tried it with another phrase in a completely unrelated business sector. Same answer. The predicted traffic is simply not present.

So - what can I conclude?

Are my sample sizes too small to be statistically sifnificant?
IS this bad luck, and the 2 phrases I chose are SPAMed?
Does this stuff happen all the time?
Am I mis-using WT?
Is WT actually useful?
What are your experiences?

Any feedback is welcome. [ducks]

Interestingly, I asked WT support if they had any numbers for the statistical accuracy of their predictions, and they say they have not had the time to do this work. Since prediction accuravy is pretty much what they are selling, and they've been around for years, I was very surprised to hear that.

 

BeeDeeDubbleU




msg:3205598
 11:59 am on Jan 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

Then I made a page and a GoogleAd for that phrase.

You made a GoogleAd? I am not sure what you mean by this.

Essex_boy




msg:3206216
 9:27 pm on Jan 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

You know what he means!

Its a bit of an odd system ive used it for around 3 years and have found with the lower figures its way wide of the mark.

Esteban




msg:3208478
 8:07 pm on Jan 4, 2007 (gmt 0)

What you discovered is common. I wasted a lot of time writing content with keywords no one ever searches for. The testing you are doing is the only way you can really tell which long phrases are good.

clenard




msg:3218490
 7:48 pm on Jan 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

You really can't do any a/b split testing with only the A test ;-)

If you're really trying to do some research - dig in more and attempt a wider test and then measure your results in a few weeks.

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