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AdSense "Experiments" "Confidence" Question
Why does loser have higher confidence rating?
ken_b

WebmasterWorld Senior Member ken_b us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4678004 posted 3:28 pm on Jun 6, 2014 (gmt 0)

I've run a few experiments now using the built-in AdSense system. The first ones worked just as one might expect. The "winner" had the highest confidence rating.

But on this last one the "loser" has a higher confidence rating? By loser I mean it is performing worse, Lower CTR, lower EPC, lower total earnings, etc.

Any guesses why that might be?

.

 

ken_b

WebmasterWorld Senior Member ken_b us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



 
Msg#: 4678004 posted 1:16 pm on Jun 8, 2014 (gmt 0)

No one else has noticed this?

A glitch maybe?

netmeg

WebmasterWorld Senior Member netmeg us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 5+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



 
Msg#: 4678004 posted 2:39 pm on Jun 8, 2014 (gmt 0)

I noticed it, I have no explanation for it.

webcentric

WebmasterWorld Senior Member Top Contributors Of The Month



 
Msg#: 4678004 posted 8:20 pm on Jun 8, 2014 (gmt 0)

Question is, "confidence in what?"

Confidence that the style performs best or confidence that the loosing ad is always going to under-perform? I'm not entirely sure either but I think confidence is related to each individual result. So, it's not a single confidence rating for the overall experiment e.g. we're confident in the results.

Winner and loser both have a result so you could be very confident that the looser actually was the worst version while only somewhat confident that the winner is definitely the best choice. It's kind of like saying, did the winner win because it's better or did the looser lose because it's worse? Which of these conclusions are we most confident in? That's my guess anyway.

phranque

WebmasterWorld Administrator phranque us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



 
Msg#: 4678004 posted 10:39 pm on Jun 8, 2014 (gmt 0)

perhaps it's a reference to the statistical term "Confidence Interval".

netmeg

WebmasterWorld Senior Member netmeg us a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 5+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



 
Msg#: 4678004 posted 12:48 pm on Jun 9, 2014 (gmt 0)

It is. It's a common concept in split testing, I just don't have a lot of confidence that I can explain it.

But that's why there's Wikipedia.

[en.wikipedia.org...]

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