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|AdSense Plus Downturn In Global Trade|
A week with International trade professionals
For those who do not know my bricks and mortar business is the international supply of specialist construction products.
This past week I have been at the second largest biennial global trade exhibition within our industry in Germany and I had an EYEOPENER!
Visitors down by at least half from the usual 60,000+
Exhibitors down by half from the usual 1,300+
Normally 50% of the visitors are foreign however I saw only 3 other Brits and not one American! People who normally visit for 2-3 days staying in local hotels were paying, literally, flying visits...arriving on early flights and leaving on late ones. Hotels which are usually booked months in advance were offering rooms the same day.
So what's the point of this post?
Turning to AdSense and checking my site ads in Belgium, Netherlands and Germany and I was surprised by the lack of inventory. Sure the ads were trade applicable but nothing like they used to be...no wonder my European clicks and EPC are down, very generic. If the USA/Canada etc are the same, well, enough said.
I knew global trade was down however seeing the effect this close-up possibly explains just why my CTR has been falling in many countries. I realise it's not the total explanation however it's a pretty good start for mine and possibly many others.
I know I have been vociferous about G and falling CTRs therefore a new sign will be going up in the office shortly before complaining akin to "Remember Germany!"
At the end of September we have our largest global trade fair...that'll be interesting!
Thanks for the depressing news HP!
Construction dying here in parts of OZ as well with one son-in-law laid off last week. Others hanging by their finger nails.
Thanks for that, real life stats. Much appreciated.
That's really bad, HuskyPup!
I hope it won't get worse, some say the crisis will be over next year.
This recession is a nasty one - probably the worst in the post WW2 period. Many economists are suggesting that recovery will be a very slow and gradual one. Many believe that it will be 3 to 5 years before any serious growth returns (particularly in North America and Western Europe).
Google is feeling the impact of this recession as well. I just finished reading most of Google's 10-Q for the financial quarter ended March 31, 2009. There is enough information in there to suggest that many AdSense publishers are seriously feeling the negative impacts of the downturn. Google's year over year revenue growth has slowed incredibly in both the U.S. (very slow growth for them of approximately 4%) and the U.K. (a serious decline of 9%). Their international business is somewhat better. The years of incredible revenue growth earlier in the decade are now long gone.
Another interesting tidbit in the 10-Q is that the average cost per click decreased by 14% between the first quarters of 2008 and 2009 which is considerably worse than financial analysts expected.
Nobody in the financial community is expecting any spectacular turnaround in upcoming quarters.
Of course, Google is still doing well financially and continues to make lots of money. However, the Google growth engine of the past few years appears to have stalled out to a large degree for the time being.
|I hope it won't get worse, some say the crisis will be over next year. |
The end of the crisis will cause the next oil price explosion
The next oil price explosion will cause a much more severe crisis
This is from the chief of the IEA.
The IEA had been for decades the "make no sorrow, oil is cheap and nearly eternal".
Now the chief of the IEA tells the opposit.
I hate to point out the obvious but...
Earth cannot sustain growth of any kind forever, not population, not construction, not pollution... the end of each is certain.
People cannot seem to adapt to that thought, powers build to destroy each other since none build to solve the problem. Current political systems fail gloriously on that front.
Have you considered marketing your specialty materials for the building of bomb shelters?
edit: my mathematics professor once told me people are silly, like a candle in a jar when you put the lid on, because we can't kill the planet with pollution... it will end shortly after we do. Every time I hear someone say put a lid on it I wonder how many years it will be at this speed. That's probably off topic but it's all related and on the horizon, hopefully a long way off too.
[edited by: JS_Harris at 6:44 am (utc) on May 28, 2009]
IMO all the trade shows and conferences are already overkill as the web easily supplants the ability to be face to face with someone on Skype, or using WebEx to host a big demo, or posting product rollouts on YouTube, or doing interactive flash programs to allow you to virtually experience the product.
There's really no excuse to packing up and shipping tons of junk around the world to a trade show or conference, nor all the thousands of people.
Obviously a virtual trade show or conference will hurt those locals that live off such shows but a whole new GREEN infrastructure will be built up around on the web.
There's no reason today you can't get 5 panelists to speak virtually over the web to thousands of attendees watching, you just can't easily chat over a beer afterwards.
|we can't kill the planet with pollution... it will end shortly after we do |
You won't kill the planet just the ability for it to support life as we know it, the planet will be just fine, it's a big rock with millions of years to allow new life to evolve which has already happened more than a few times.
FYI, there's some life that lives so far below the surface there's not much we can do to harm it, something always survives, just might not be us.
|You won't kill the planet just the ability for it to support life as we know it, the planet will be just fine, it's a big rock with millions of years to allow new life to evolve |
I personally believe we will come and go and at some future time milleniums ahead, a new evolved species will supplant us and wonder "how did they screw up".
And likely they'll repeat the very same or similar mistakes we have.
|IMO all the trade shows and conferences are already overkill |
I would agree with this completely and, in fact, my trade decided this 20 years ago with many only having biennial conferences and trade shows and all of them compressed into 3-4 days whereas before some went on for two weeks!
At its worst I used to do up to one show a month, my worst month a few years ago saw me in Italy, Brazil, USA, China and Germany. Very tiring. This year only one show so far, possibly Italy in October and none earmarked for next year yet and I do know many others are considering similar.
|as the web easily supplants the ability to be face to face with someone on Skype, or using WebEx |
If it were only that easy. I presented a paper and a web demonstration actually doing this in both 1994 and 1995. That freaked a lot of people since 90+% had never even heard of the Net at that time. Lots of people could see the big picture and lots of companies have tried to do it...all with abject failure.
The fact is that people do like to get together to discuss their ups and downs and what's happening and they also like the very touchy, feely experience a fair brings. It also gives them the chance to see their real world supplier(s), something increasingly rare these days because many suppliers cannot financially justify having many company road warriors.
|or posting product rollouts on YouTube, or doing interactive flash programs to allow you to virtually experience the product. |
No sarcasm intended iBill however this could also be said of holidays:-)
FWIW I never have holidays, I prefer to go to trade shows and have an extra day or two at each end. It's 100% tax deductible for me and it keeps me far more interested than being a sand crab!
|There's really no excuse to packing up and shipping tons of junk around the world to a trade show or conference, nor all the thousands of people. |
You're not kidding when you say tons, my stuff is incredibly heavy which is one of the reasons trade shows are very good for us because people can actually visit the stand and take away the physical samples they require.
Our small samples cost a fortune to courier or post, usually between USD 70-100 per piece. Now just multiply that by 20 samples a week over a year and you can see that trade shows are far more efficient for us.
|There's no reason today you can't get 5 panelists to speak virtually over the web to thousands of attendees watching, |
International audience, 24 hour time zones, many different languages...it's nowhere possible for us yet.
|you just can't easily chat over a beer afterwards. |
Hmmm...I've not found a problem since my first fair in 1969:-)
|And likely they'll repeat the very same or similar mistakes we have. |
Probably however we'll most likely never know.
|People cannot seem to adapt to that thought, powers build to destroy each other since none build to solve the problem. Current political systems fail gloriously on that front. |
Ah, the eternal elected governments' promises:-) It's all based around people's perceived needs...new phone, new TV, new car, new whatever.
|Have you considered marketing your specialty materials for the building of bomb shelters? |
Hehehe...did that years ago during the Cold War.
Oooops, I seem to have wandered off AdSense, maybe the above is more reason for using it?
I'm lucky my niche is soaring
Tattoo removal services are growing in the States. So not everywhere is dropping like a stone.
|Tattoo removal services are growing in the States. |
Thank heavens for that!
|I'm lucky my niche is soaring |
Job site? Maybe debt counselling for bankers :-)
Yeah, we can all sleep better knowing that tattoo removal alone will get the States out of this mess ;) But seriously, it is one niche that is growing due to people wanting them removed so they have better chances of getting a job.
Hmm... Maybe General Motors and Chrysler should seriously look into tattoo removal.
there is only a finite number of tattooed people, though. so eventually that bubble will burst.
unless it's something to do with removing all the prison numbers which have been branded onto prisoners biceps. because i hear that crime is going up.
|so eventually that bubble will burst |
Looking at how many AdSense ads there are for tattoo removals we'll be well out of this recession by that time...and then the next craze will commence!...followed by another remedy.
|next craze will commence!...followed by another remedy. |
AdSense addiction recovery?
Good anecdote, HP. A reminder that virtual businesses still have a connection to the real world--though not all of them are as concrete as the connections in yours!
I've just received the official press release since the close of show:
Visitors were 34,000, down about 43.4%
Exhibitors were a claimed 800, down about 38.5% - hmmm, that figure includes represented companies as well, no way were there 800 booths! I have just counted up all the exhibitors and it was much nearer to 500.
Interestingly these figures are very much in-line with one of two major widget trade fairs held in the USA, at the end of April, that has also just released its attendance figures with a 33% reduction.
It would be interesting to know from other major trade fairs if theirs have similar metrics, anyone?
How does this relate to AdSense?
My earnings are down more or less the same as these trade fairs!
Possibly using our own global analyses such as these we can understand better why, for some of us, we are seeing such huge CTR and earnings' reductions. Well, we may as well do it since G$ certainly i$n't giving u$ any hint$.
Thanks for the report HuskyPup. We should not be trying to hide the truth. I don't understand people that complain that you sent us the REALITY of what's happening out there. Only online scammers and make money now ebook salesmen are interested in maintaining a fake impression that all is fine with AdSense.
|Only online scammers and make money now ebook salesmen are interested in maintaining a fake impression that all is fine with AdSense. |
After this last week a lot of my AdSense doubts have been assuaged by what I saw. The reality is that some sectors are keeping steady and some are improving whilst many are being hit hard, that's the nature of business and recessions, however I am reporting about one of the truly global industries that affects everyone for housing, factories, hotels etc, everything that comprises modern man since these are important and very relevant statistics.
Without revealing completely what I do, I have yet to see a computer image give me, or my clients, the same satisfaction of the real thing:-)
Dog walking time!
|Without revealing completely what I do, I have yet to see a computer image give me, or my clients, the same satisfaction of the real thing:-) |
i'm guessing you run an internet cake shop
|i'm guessing you run an internet cake shop |
Hmmm, must be fruitcakes since HP said his products are incredibly heavy. :-)
Solid chocolate gateaux:-)
|Possibly using our own global analyses such as these we can understand better why, for some of us, we are seeing such huge CTR and earnings' reductions. Well, we may as well do it since G$ certainly i$n't giving u$ any hint$. |
Hey, we've got people here who don't trust the numbers in Google's quarterly earnings reports or their own AdSense stats. Why would they believe anything Google might say about the global economy? :-)
On a more serious note, price-cutting has become standard operating procedure in businesses with perishable commodities (think airline seats or hotel rooms). I just checked international air fares for one popular route with no direct competitors and was shown a fare that I might have expected to see in October or November. Another international fare, for December, looked like a number from the 1990s. And some five-star hotels in a city that my wife and I are planning to visit this summer are offering rates which aren't much higher than the three-star hotels are charging. It's a bloodbath out there, at least in some industries. I'm just glad I don't own a brick-and-mortar business.
[edited by: signor_john at 8:14 pm (utc) on May 28, 2009]
|International audience, 24 hour time zones, many different languages...it's nowhere possible for us yet. |
That's just a logistical issue, not a show stopper problem.
You can record the entire session for those that can't view it live and let them view it when they want, at their leisure.
As a matter of fact, you could increase visibility with recorded sessions for those that had to pick one vs. the other in real time, or couldn't make it, or found out about it too late, the virtual conference is going to be the future, don't resist, resistance is futile. ;)
[edited by: incrediBILL at 8:06 pm (utc) on May 28, 2009]
|not a show stopper problem. |
Yep, I was thinking along the same lines as well however just how many globally want to to see their widget things via the Net? Who is going to pay for its production? Who is going to organise it?
As you quite rightly say it's a logisitcal issue however bear in mind that many "western" countries have devolved/outsourced much of their real-world production and many of the "western" corporate buyers have absolutely no interest in financing ventures like this.
They are only interested in their world of their widget profit and loss, they have no interest in the supplier's difficulties or problems.
There is only so much technology can do and supply before hitting the real world buffers.
As an example it amazes some of our clients that our Indian factory production can be halted by the monsoons! They simply cannot comprehend the weather conditions we experience! Washed out roads...what are they?
|don't resist, resistance is futile. ;) |
I've already been assimilated, it's just taking the others a little longer to enjoy :-)
Businesses like HP's can go the digital sales route when three-dimensional samples can be transmitted electronically....
Beam them over, Scottie!
Seriously, there are still plenty of businesses where face-to-face meetings and physical presentation of samples and models mean something. That's not going to change overnight just because we think it should
|when three-dimensional samples can be transmitted electronically |
Bet they'll still charge by the kilogramme/kilowatt/kilonewmetrictobeinvented!
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